Expert Says SCOTUS May Grant Cert to Florida Betting Case

Daniel Wallach has once again weighed in on the Florida sports betting case. Despite saying that a cert denial is a “statistically likely” outcome earlier, he noted that West Flagler might succeed in securing certiorari.

For context, West Flagler is trying to appeal a gaming compact in Florida that provided the Seminole Tribe with the exclusive right to offer online sports betting. However, since tribal operators are only allowed to operate on tribal land, some disputed this deal’s constitutionality.

In response, proponents of the measure argued that since the online sports betting servers are based on tribal land, the compact doesn’t technically violate Florida’s gambling rules.

Not everyone was convinced though, resulting in a lengthy legal conflict. While the Department of Interior ruled in favor of the compact and the US government issued rules that affirm Florida-style compacts, West Flagler remained hellbent on appealing the arrangement.

The opponents of the Seminole Tribe’s compact with the government submitted the case to the SCOTUS, which eventually agreed to take a look into the matter.

Wallach Is Bullish on the Court Granting Cert

Daniel Wallach, a prominent legal expert, previously noted that the SCOTUS tends to deny certiorari to most cases it receives. However, the gaming attorney believes that there is a significant chance that the Supreme Court will actually grant certiorari and review the case on the merits.

In an interview with NEXT.io, Wallach said that this is an important federal question that has previously divided lower courts. According to him, the SCOTUS tends to reviews exactly such cases. He also added that the importance of tribal gaming to the US ecosystem is also a likely reason why the court may be interested in the case.

So, I’m bullish on this court granting the petition and taking it up on the merits.

Daniel Wallach

The legal specialist pointed out that the current case is similar in some ways to the PASPA repeal in 2018. Because of that, the longer the case plays out, the more beneficial to West Flagler because in the last week of session, the court will have a better understanding of how many more slots need to be filled for the next term.

That’s exactly how it played out in 2017 when Murphy vs. NCAA’s petition for writ of certiorari was granted on the last day of the court’s term that year.

Daniel Wallach

What Are the Possible Outcomes?

Wallach explained that if West Flagler wins the case, Florida online sports betting could shut down, potentially jeopardizing the future of hub-and-spoke gaming compacts.

If the court grants certiorari, the matter will be further discussed later this year and in early 2025.

Even if the court denies certiorari, this wouldn’t necessarily be the last we hear of the Florida betting case, Wallach said, saying that West Flagler will once again be able to file a new petition in Florida federal district court.

The summary reversal option is also a likely outcome, Wallach added, saying that such a decision would see the justices overturn the DC Circuit’s judgment without requiring it to be examined on the merits. As a result, online sports betting would still shut down as the compact would be invalidated.