October 18, 2021 3 min read


Smarkets Confident Donald Trump Could Win 2024 Presidency

Smarkets is bidding that former US President Donald Trump will make another run for the White House in 2024 and possibly succeed. In fact, the betting operator is confident that the controversial ex-POTUS may be the most likely candidate to win, giving him the lead in the odds. This data is not too surprising as Pew Research Center published a study a few weeks back, outlining that almost half of Republicans want Trump to return in the White House and are willing to back him.

Trump’s Odds Just Keep Going Up

With the 2020 political race between the current President, Joe Biden, and Trump proving the highest volume one for sports betting markets, it’s not at all surprising to see Trump forecast to win again. Trump is given a slim chance, though, with the betting agency giving the casino mogul a 20% chance of winning against 19% for President Biden.

Following the attack on the Capitol, Trump suffered an immediate blow to his ratings with his reelection bid looking bleak at only 3% chance of winning. However, Smarkets now estimates that the odds are looking much better. According to Smarkets head of political markets, Matthew Shaddick, Donald Trump is looking stronger than ever given the current field of potential candidates:

“It’s a pretty staggering development to find a defeated one-term president taking over as favorite from the incumbent who beat him, but we know by now that Donald Trump is no ordinary politician.”

Shaddick is confident that Trump has been able to overcome much of the political negativity associated with his name and will now be able to resurface in the 2024 Presidential race. The analyst explained that part of previous skepticism had to do with legal and health issues that Trump was expected to face in the wake of his presidency. None of this has happened and Smarkets is confident that Trump has two-in-three chances to run again.

More Political Heavyweights in the Arena

Meanwhile, Smarkets has been able to pinpoint the odds for more political candidates, including Kamala Harris, which is now given a 13% chance of rising to the presidential position in 2024. Her odds dropped from previously 21% immediately after the election, Smarkets noted.

While Trump may not win the election, he is given a 45% chance of winning the Grand Old Party’s nomination for President, should he agree to participate in the race, which he is likely to do. He will probably outstrip Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and another Republican heavyweight, Nikki Halley, who are given a 14% and 11% chance of making the nomination respectively.

Trump is both praised and loathed in the Republican Party as some have seen him as too extreme and others have argued that he can fight a “radicalized left.” Trump himself might be interested in assuming the Presidency again, especially with his Trump National Doral Resort in Doral, Florida was blocked from having a casino.


Stoyan holds over 8 years of esports and gambling writing experience under his belt and is specifically knowledgeable about developments within the online scene. He is a great asset to the GamblingNews.com team with his niche expertise and continual focus on providing our readers with articles that have a unique spin which differentiates us from the rest.

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