Kevin O’Leary Thinks Bettors Are Better Than Pollsters in Predicting Elections

Kevin O’Leary, an entrepreneur and businessman, who is not a betting man himself, has suggested that pollsters may be only the second best service to figure out the outcome of elections.

O’Leary Says Nevada Bettors Get It Right – But What Bettors?

In a recent televised appearance on Fox News, a media network and channel, O’Leary suggested that bettors may have a better hold of what is going on and who is going to win the electoral battles raging across the nation.

O’Leary seems fairly confident that Vegas bettors seem to have an almost uncanny inside knowledge of election results. “They’re better than pollsters, frankly, if you look at the history,” suggesting that anyone who is agonizing over the Harris-Trump electoral race in November need only look at Vegas bookies to assuage or stir their fears.

However, O’Leary is missing an important point. There is no political betting allowed at Nevada bookmakers, which means that the historical evidence he is talking about is not necessarily collated from previous betting that has gone on the Strip.

The United States has been very gung-ho when it comes to political betting, with lawmakers from both parties calling for the complete suspension of betting exchanges, a sort of middle-ground option where people can place limited wagers and which academics use to gauge electoral outcomes.

In other words, betting does help pollsters and researchers figure out just what is going on the ground. The base argument is an interesting one, however. Do political betting markets get it right? Well, it seems so, with Hilary Clinton losing to a resurging Donald Trump who was perhaps just as shocked to find out that he had won in 2016.

Then, Joe Biden was tipped to win by political bettors, as he did, and political bettors have been hammering the incumbent over his chances to put up a fight against Trump. Although political betting markets did not put much in store for Kamala Harris while she served as VP, she has been topping the charts.

Win or Lose, Trump Makes for Great Television

Polymarket now has her as the most likely winner for November 5, with the Harris-Walz ticket given a 52% chance to secure the presidency. Conversely, Trump has been reduced from a shoo-in to 46%. The fight is still ongoing.

Of course, the main thing is that it’s just too soon to make any reasonable conclusion about the outcome.

O’Leary himself acknowledges as much. “I don’t think anybody can call this race right now,” he argued, and he has a point. Policy and debates will shape the rest of the election cycle he noted sagely.

More importantly, though, a debate between Harris and Trump could be “great television” no matter who wins.