Betting Heats Up as Harris and Trump Gear Up for First Presidential Debate

The second presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle awaited by many, will pit Vice President Kamala Harris against former President Donald Trump on September 10. This marks their first face-off. 

Betting Markets Signal Harris as Favorite Despite Tight Trump Challenge

The event follows Trump’s impressive showing against President Joe Biden in June, which sparked worries among Democratic bigwigs about Biden’s ability to run for another term. Feeling the heat from heavy hitters like former President Barack Obama and Representative Nancy Pelosi, Biden chose to bow out of the race in July. This move left Harris as the Democratic pick for president.

The debate will air live at 9 p.m. EST from the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, with ABC News anchors David Muir and Linsey Davis moderating. Notably, Harris leads Trump by a slim 0.6-point margin in the state’s latest polls. This debate could make a real difference for both candidates influencing voters who have not made up their minds.

People who bet on politics have been putting money on the event on Polymarket, a prediction market that uses blockchain where people bet using USDC, a type of digital money. According to bettors, Trump will talk more, but Harris is expected to be the winner. Users on Polymarket believe there’s a 75% chance that pollsters like Ipsos and FiveThirtyEight will say Harris won, but they do not think it will make a big difference in the long run. They see a 22% chance that Harris will get a big boost in polls after the debate.

Polymarket Predictions: Will Harris Challenge Trump’s Legal Troubles or Will Trump Fire Back?

Guesses about what the candidates might say have also been popular on Polymarket. People betting think Harris will bring up Trump’s legal troubles and talk about abortion, while Trump is likely to slam Harris on her immigration policies calling her the “border czar,” and might repeat his usual lines about “fake news” and China. Users on Polymarket cannot agree on whether Trump will use the phrase “Comrade Kamala,” which refers to his claims tying Harris to communist policies.

Although betting on US elections is still against the law in most states, platforms outside the US offer odds on the election. Bookmakers in the UK currently see Trump as the slight favorite giving him 4/5 (-125) odds. This suggests he has a 55.56% chance to win the general election. In comparison, Harris has 11/10 (+110) odds. Polymarket’s odds also show a close race, with Trump ahead of Harris 52% to 46% in betting markets.

As the debate gets closer, excitement is building up. Some think the number of people watching could go over 75 million. This might challenge the record of 84 million viewers set by the Trump-Clinton debate in 2016. The Tuesday night debate is likely to be one of the biggest moments in the 2024 presidential race.