June 3, 2024 2 min read

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Fact-checked by Angel Hristov

Trump Tops PredictIt Markets Despite the Guilty Verdict

PredictIt, a platform where players can buy shares of political outcomes, shows that players are more excited about the elections than ever

Former US President Donald Trump, was just found guilty on 34 charges of first-degree falsification of business records, related to an affair with adult film star Stormy Daniels. Yet, political bettors’ backing for him has barely shifted.

The guilty verdict had the notable effect of immediately causing a spike in political betting activity. PredictIt, a platform where players can buy shares of political outcomes, shows that players are more excited about the elections than ever. In the wake of the verdict, betting volumes increased to approximately 10 times the usual. As it turns out, a whopping 123,000+ shares were traded in the elections market on Thursday alone.

Somewhat surprisingly, however, the platform shows that the recent conviction has barely affected the results. Despite being the first ex-POTUS to be convicted, Trump still commands a significant presence over the US electorate, PredictIt suggests.

While Trump skeptics flooded markets with anti-Trump positions for a while, Trump backers eventually struck back. Overall, the former President’s odds of securing the Republican nomination and winning the presidential election have hardly changed, according to PredictIt.

Speaking of the Republican nominee market, PredictIt recorded unprecedented activity in this category as more than 75,000 shares were traded on the day Trump was officially found guilty of the charges.

Trump Maintains His Lead

The betting odds of ex-President Donald Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden continued to fluctuate over the past few days. Trump maintained his lead as a favorite and, by Friday, his shares were back up to 51 cent. As of the time of this writing, the former President’s shares on PredictIt are priced at 50 cents.

Biden’s shares, on the other hand, experienced a slight decline to 45 cent before rebounding to 48 cents per piece.

For context, Gavin Newsom’s shares are currently priced at 5 cents. While his shares experienced a slight spike on Thursday, reaching 8 cents apiece, they have since gone back down to 5 cents.

In terms of other candidates, Robert Kennedy Jr., Kamala Harris and Nikki Haley’s shares currently cost 4 cents, 3 cents and 2 cents respectively. The shares of Ron DeSantis, Pete Buttigieg, Vivek Ramaswamy and Tim Scott are currently priced at 1 cent.

While the verdict barely affected Trump’s results, his sentencing, scheduled for July 11, could still jeopardize his election chances. Most experts doubt that the former POTUS will be jailed. However, almost everyone agrees that further developments will affect the political betting market and volumes.

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Angel has a passion for all forms of writing, be it fiction or nonfiction. His curious nature gives him an ace up his sleeve when researching a new topic. Angel’s thirst for knowledge, paired with adaptability, always helps him find his way around.

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