- Legal States
Fiona Simmons January 21, 2022 3 min read
Support for Biden-Trump Election Low, Candidates Odds of Rerun High
Facing a standoff with Russia in Ukraine and dealing with one of the worst rifts in US society in the past twenty years, President Joe Biden’s chances of reelection are not looking too good. While bias often determines how we cast our votes, sportsbooks would much rather rely on cold, hard numbers and right now, these number suggests that POTUS is in trouble.
Real Clear Politics now puts Biden’s approval rating at just 40.9% which is beginning to look perilously close to Donald Trump’s lowest rating, who posted his worst rating at 34% in January 2021, according to a Gallup poll at the time.
New Zealand political betting exchange PredictIt now has Biden at a mere 22% chance of winning his reelection. Given the polls, the Democrats may need to swing behind another candidate for the upcoming Presidential elections in 2024, although time is closing quickly to muster a candidate against what could be another run versus Trump, a political firebrand whose disregard for due protocol has won him the sympathies of half of America.
Smarkets, another trusted political exchange, only sees Biden’s chances of success at 16%, which would create a tremendous value for anyone who bets on POTUS winning his reelection bid – and that actually happening. Commenting on the outlook of Biden having another stint at the White House, Smarkets head political analyst Matthew Shaddick described markets as pessimistic.
Trumpism Gathers Momentum in Republican Corner
Bipartisan politics in the United States have long left their “keep-the-other-one-in-check” purpose and are now fiery campaigns that paint the other as the villains and offer little leeway for consensus.
One thing that both camps can agree on, though, is that Trump is the Republicans’ best shot at winning the Presidency once again. Trump is given a much better chance, although sportsbooks aren’t entirely sure if he will indeed end up running.
In fact, a new poll by the AP/NORC found out that only 28% of Americans wanted to see Biden go up against Trump in the next elections, but with candidates lacking on both ends of the political spectrum, this remains a possibility.
PredictIt argues that Trump has about a 38% chance of running as the Great Old Party’s nominee. Another possible option is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has around 29% to be pulled in the race. Meanwhile, PredictIt notes that the Democrats are still very likely to end up with Biden running for office again with this being a 37% chance. Vice president Kamala Harris could also come into the race at 20%.
Biden himself said that should his health allow it, he is likely to run for another stint in office, and that will include Kamala Harris in the ticket. However, chances are that political bettors will want to look elsewhere as is the majority of voters. US politics is in shambles right now, but betting on the traditional candidates may not be a smart choice right now.