Prediction Markets Ask You to Bet on the Pope’s Health and Successor

Prediction markets came with a promise to make it fun to place a bet on the outcome of certain events that lay outside the purview of most legalized sportsbooks in the United States – politics comes to mind.

Betting on Pope’s Health Raises Objections, Generates Money

Kalshi launched its offer just in time for the 2024 United States presidential election, and it all went down smoothly despite strong opposition from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

However, Kalshi has engaged in some wagers that have tested the patience of observers and regulators, including a bet on the future of Luigi Mangione, the presumed shooter of UnitedHealth CEO’s in New York. The markets made available included whether Mangione would get the death penalty for his actions.

This quickly raised hackles from regulators, and Kalshi complied. Yet, it’s not the only platform to have allowed itself moral elasticity with Polymarket, a company that exited the market in the United States in 2022 after a settlement with the CFTC.

Polymarket has opened a prediction market on the health of Pope Francis, asking consumers to take a punt on whether we can expect a “New Pope in 2025?” As of Friday afternoon, the market had already generated $420,000 in volume.

Polymarket has not been coy about its intended effect, but users have not necessarily appreciated the humor. Some of the more critical remarks suggested that “betting on the Pope’s health sends you directly to Hell.”

Another user said that benefiting from someone’s death seemed too immoral for them to wager on that market but given that the market has already hit $587,478 as of the time of writing, not everyone has this objection.

Furthermore, betting on papal elections was not always morally questionable. In fact, it was normal practice throughout the 16^th century until Pope Gregory XIV in 1951 said that Catholics should not be gambling on the election of a pope nor how long a pope would stay in power.

You Won’t Get Kicked Out of the Church – It’s Okay

Some users, though, have said that although they disagreed with Polymarket’s choice of markets, the Pope’s elections were a “fair game”, even if it did raise ethical concerns. Polymarket has not been past such controversial markets, offering users to bet on the pathway of the Los Angeles fires, for example, which chafed many users.

To those worrying about their souls, however, the company published an update in which it said that it was okay to place a punter on Pope Francis’ health. You will not get kicked out of the church for such offenses these days, the company assured devout Christians.

Polymarket has faced pushback from global regulators as well, with Singapore and Belgium both outlawing the website.