Election Day Sends Polymarket and Kalshi to Top of App Store

With only hours left to decide the race, and Donald Trump leading in the electoral college vote at the time of writing this article, a new interesting trend emerged with two prediction markets apps, Kalshi and Polymarket topping the Apple App Store charts of Free Apps downloads, enjoying unprecedented interest.

Apple’s Free Apps Dominated by Kalshi and Polymarket

Kalshi, which has called itself a prediction market platform, has lured consumers with the “Bet the 2024 Election” caption in its app title in the store, whereas Polymarket has stuck with its origins, calling itself an “Election Forecast.” Kalshi generally insists on being seen as a “prediction market” platform and not a betting platform, but the use of the words “bet” in the app’s titles puts this under question.

Presently, Kalshi is the first most downloaded free store app, followed by Polymarket, which has taken the second spot. The apps are even ahead of such staple free apps, as Threads, McDonald’s, ChatGPT, and even Google itself, causing a stir.

As to Kalshi, this is normal, and “prediction markets are the future,” as boasted by company cofounder Luana Lopes Lara who shared his thoughts on X.

Yet, Kalshi is caught in an ugly brawl with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) which has been trying to force the company to shut down its operations one way or another – to no avail so far, with the regulator losing in court to the company.

Understandably, the CFTC has sounded the alarm that if Kalshi and Polymarket are allowed to continue running their betting markets, they could very well undermine the sanctity and fairness of the elections.

Yet, this is not the first time such platforms have been able to make a foray into the United States during an election. In 2016, PredictIt became a pioneer but similarly faced strong opposition from the CFTC.

However, the platform navigated this by explaining to the regulator that its prediction markets are limited to $850 per contract. The data can be fast-tracked to researchers and other specialists who observe electoral behavior to conclude the process.

Prediction Markets Heavily Favor Donald Trump for Reelection

The CFTC acquiesced that there was a value in those statements and agreed to withdraw its No-Action Relief letter which it had sent earlier, but similarly asked PredictIt to suspend its binary betting contracts. But PredictIt had emboldened a new wave of similar platforms looking to achieve something similar with Polymarket

As to the closing hours of the election, the look is not good for the Democratic Party and Vice President Kamala Harris who is running for her boss’s job. Prediction market platforms already favor Trump heavily as the favorite and are trading his shares at 69 cents compared to just 39 cents, specifically at Polymarket.