Canada PM’s Odds Improve Amid Political and Economic Changes

Mark Carney, Canada’s new Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader, now has a better chance to win the next federal election. Betting markets such as Polymarket show this change. Carney’s odds went up from 32% to 41% in the past few weeks. His Conservative rival, Pierre Poilievre still leads, but his edge has shrunk a lot. Poilievre’s odds fell from 83% in February to 59% by mid-March.

Carney Takes Office as Canada’s PM Amid Political Turmoil and US Tensions

Carney locked up his spot as prime minister after he won the Liberal Party leadership contest by a large margin. He took charge during a rocky period, as Canada currently deals with internal political splits and growing friction with the United States. When former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepped down in January, it left the Liberal Party looking for a fresh path forward, and Carney rose to the top of the pack.

Pierre Poilievre, who leads the Conservative Party, stands as his primary challenger in the coming election. Poilievre has long backed Bitcoin and pushed to deregulate finance. Carney, however, has expressed doubts about cryptocurrencies. He prefers to develop digital currencies that central banks control. His economic views and his time as head of Canada’s and England’s central banks make him seem like a steady leader when things are shaky.

A key factor that has an impact on the election’s betting markets has been US President Donald Trump‘s recent threats to impose tariffs on Canada as well as his eyebrow-raising comments hinting that Canada might become the 51st US state. These remarks have sparked a surge of patriotism among Canadian voters, prompting a large-scale boycott of American products and travel.

Poilievre’s Lead Shrinks as Carney Rises in Betting Markets Amid US-Canada Tensions

The growing trade spat has also triggered responses from Canadian officials, including Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who at first warned about tariffs on electricity exports to the US before later changing his stance. The doubt around these economic tensions has pushed many voters to support Carney, who is now viewed as a crucial figure to stand up to Trump’s tough trade policies.

The changing political scene has had an impact on the betting odds on prediction market platforms such as Polymarket. At the start of the year, Poilievre was the clear favorite to win the next election, with his chances reaching as high as 93%. However, as Carney took over leadership and used growing anti-Trump feelings to his advantage, his odds got better over time.

Many betting sites and platforms have also changed their numbers to reflect these shifts. While Poilievre is still in the lead, the difference between the two candidates has gotten much smaller.

The next election, which needs to happen by October 2025, now looks to have much closer margins than people thought before. As Carney gets comfortable in his position, people wonder if he will call an early vote to take advantage of his current popularity or stick to the scheduled election date. With things at home and abroad swaying how people might vote, it is getting harder to predict who will end up running Canada next.