IMF: Macau Economy to Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels in 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has published its outlook for Macau, projecting further recovery of its casino sector and overall economy. Gambling in the special administrative region was affected negatively by the COVID-19 pandemic and China’s Zero-COVID policy but is now on a firm path to recovery.

According to the IMF, the recovering GGR will contribute to an increase of 13.9% in Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP). As a result, the fund believes that GDP will reach $45 billion by the end of the year.

It is hardly surprising that the recovery of Macau’s casino sector would underpin a significant increase in GDP. Earlier this month, the Financial Services Bureau of Macau reported that gambling continues to be the main driver of tax income in the SAR. According to the bureau, the six concessionaires generated roughly ¾ of all taxes ($8.1 billion) in 2023.

February figures show that Macau’s casino recorded a total GGR of $2.3 billion, further highlighting the post-pandemic recovery.

The IMF Is Optimistic about Macau

In the meantime, the IMF is firm that Macau’s economic activity is experiencing a significant rebounding. According to its report:

Macao SAR’s economy expanded by 80.5 percent in 2023, driven by a surge in services export after Mainland China lifted COVID-19 containment measures.

IMF statement

The IMF emphasized that the favorable economic metrics were supported by the stellar momentum of the gambling sector and the return of the mass tourism segment. In addition, non-gaming services exports also expanded strongly.

Despite that, the IMF warned that Macau’s economic momentum experienced significant fluctuations and exhibited signs of slowing down in Q4 2023. Smaller and medium non-gambling businesses were less fortunate than the gaming and tourism sectors and experienced less thrilling recovery figures.

Still, the IMF is optimistic that Macau will be able to return to its pre-pandemic economic levels in 2025.

As for some of the key actors in Macau, Galaxy Entertainment Group just published its Q4 results, reporting favorable metrics thanks to the recovery of the gaming tourism segment. Melco Resorts, on the other hand, had its shares included in Morningstar’s top 10 stocks trading under $10 list.