US Soldier Charged Over $400K Maduro Betting Case

A US Army special operations soldier involved in the removal of Nicolás Maduro from power has been charged with using classified information to place bets on the mission through Polymarket, federal authorities said on Thursday, April 23.

Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke is accused of turning roughly $33,000 in wagers into about $409,000 in profits by placing bets on the outcome of “Operation Absolute Resolve” before President Donald Trump officially confirmed Maduro’s capture to the public on January 3, 2026.

The Soldier Used Classified Intel for Personal Gain

“As alleged in the indictment, Van Dyke used his access to classified information about that operation to personally profit,” said the US Department of Justice’s Office of Public Affairs in a statement.

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche: “Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain.”

US Attorney Jay Clayton for the Southern District of New York emphasized that “prediction markets are not a haven for using misappropriated confidential or classified information for personal gain.” 

He Tried to Delete His Account

According to the indictment, Van Dyke also tried to hide his involvement. Prosecutors say he attempted to delete his Polymarket account and change the email linked to his cryptocurrency activity after unusual betting patterns drew attention.

The charges against him include theft of government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and the unlawful use of confidential intelligence.

Prosecutors added that Van Dyke was later photographed aboard the USS Iwo Jima following the operation, alongside other personnel involved in the mission.

The case is now regraded as a major test of how authorities handle prediction markets, with popular platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi already coming under growing scrutiny, with concerns that individuals with access to nonpublic information could exploit them for financial gain.

In a separate case, another user reportedly earned around $550,000 by correctly betting that President Trump would announce a ceasefire in the US conflict with Iran.

Polymarket said it flagged the suspicious trades tied to the Maduro case and cooperated with federal investigators.Legal experts say the case could help determine how existing laws, particularly under the Commodity Exchange Act, apply to prediction markets built around real-world events.