Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev UFC Vegas 103 Odds, Time, and Prediction

Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev is a fight that can save this APEX event. UFC Fight Nights in Vegas has a reputation for being dull, but the headliner of UFC Vegas 103 can prove fans otherwise.

The thing is that the Kape vs. Almabayev is a UFC Flyweight clash that will launch the winner a few spots higher in the divisional rankings. Our prediction is that the fighter who wins on March 1 will get to fight a title eliminator bout by the end of 2025.

So, who will it be?

Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev Odds

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When, Where, and How to Watch?

• Place: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada
• Date: Saturday, March 1, 2025
• Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
• How to Watch: ESPN+

UFC Vegas 103 Odds Favor Manel Kape

Born in Angola, Manel Kape lived in Portugal, Japan, and Thailand, before finally settling in the United States. His residence is in Las Vegas, which is where his fight with Asu Almabayev will take place.

Not having to travel across the world is definitely a good thing, but there are many other reasons why he’s favored to beat the Kazakh fighter. First of all, Kape has a pretty impressive record with 20 wins and 7 losses.

He’s 5-3 since joining the UFC in 2021, with each of those three losses happening by decision. They all happened against elite opponents as well – Alexandre Pantoja, Matheus Nicolau, and Muhammad Mokaev.

When it comes to Kape’s wins, his most impressive UFC performance was in his most recent fight – he beat Bruno Gustavo da Silva by a TKO last December.

Still, his most impressive fight was the one in RIZIN. Back in 2019, we saw him beat Kai Asakura by a TKO in the RIZIN Bantamweight Championship bout.

Can Asu Almabayev Ruin Kape’s Plans?

Asu Almabayev is exactly the kind of fighter Kape hates fighting. While Kape is a hell of a striker, this guy is an incredible grappler. Almabayev is 21-2 overall with 9 wins by submission, 9 by decision, and 3 by KO/TKO.

He doesn’t land too many strikes, but he also doesn’t get hit often. In fact, in his four UFC fights, he got punched and kicked only 54 times combined, which accounts for just over 13 strikes absorbed per fight.

In his most recent fight, Almabayev’s tactical approach to fighting helped him outsmart Nicolau and win by unanimous decision. He did a fine job keeping his opponent at a distance. Plus, he kept him in a clinch for a considerable period, which is what he’ll probably try to do on March 1 as well.

Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev Prediction

It’s been almost eight years since Almabayev lost a fight last time. Sure, he hasn’t fought too many elite opponents in his career, but he did do well against Nicolau and three other UFC fighters. Kape is better than all of them, but we think Almabayev can get the job done.

We’ll probably see a real dogfight inside Octagon, which will probably last for the full 25 minutes. Our prediction is that the judges will then score in Almabayev’s favor.

Pick: Asu Almabayev