Macau Casinos Brace for Record Golden Week

Macau is heading into what analysts expect will be one of its strongest Golden Week holiday periods after the COVID pandemic. Analysts are expecting daily gambling revenue to average MOP 1.05 billion $131 million) throughout the eight-day holiday period. Experts also note that Macau’s diversification efforts appear to be paying off, as the region is becoming an increasingly popular holiday destination.

Operators Are Aiming for Long-Term Customer Retention

The October Golden Week celebration, running from September 29 through October 6 this year, has historically been one of the busiest periods for the territory. However, investment banks note that the resulting momentum could carry well past the holiday itself. Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau wrote in a recent note that they expect Macau casinos to do everything they can to retain high-value players.

According to the two analysts, Macau’s immediate challenge would be to maintain the momentum provided by Golden Week.  Casino operators have packed the calendar with marquee events, providing visitors with a reason to stay after the holidays. Among the highlights are the NBA China Tour games between the Phoenix Suns and Brooklyn Nets at the Venetian, as well as Jackson Wang’s concert at Galaxy Arena.

The rich calendar that casino operators are putting together over the next several months will continue to appeal to premium players.

George Choi and Timothy Chau, Citigroup analysts

Citigroup has already upgraded its full-year 2025 gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast to 10% year-over-year growth, up from the previous 7% estimate. These figures imply a 14% growth for the remainder of the year, with full-year GGR reaching MOP 248.6 billion ($31 billion). The bank raised its forecast for 2026 to 7% growth, showing confidence in a long-term recovery.

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Jefferies also remains bullish and has revised the 2025 forecast to MOP 248 billion ($31 billion), suggesting growth of between 13% and 15%. The bank highlighted Macau’s summer surge, driven by blockbuster entertainment, attractive promotions, new high-end developments like the Capella hotel by Galaxy Macau, and the refurbishment of older establishments such as The Londoner Macao.

JP Morgan was among the first high-profile banks to draw attention to Macau’s recent surge. In August, the bank raised its projections for the third time in three months, with Q3 projections rising 12% and Q4 surging 16% year-over-year. Analysts cite improved liquidity in Hong Kong, a stronger yuan, and rising stock and crypto markets as positive factors giving players more spending power.

While Golden Week will serve as an immediate test for the banks’ projections, Macau’s long-term gains could come from the shift toward year-round programming and a greater diversification of tourism offers. As operators aggressively target non-gambling tourists with concerts, sports, and culinary festivals, the region may be entering another sustained growth phase that does not rely on seasonal highlights.