Coinbase CEO: Prediction Markets Are a Better Source of Truth

Brian Armstrong, the co-founder and chief executive officer of Coinbase, has expressed optimism about the future of prediction markets. In the Q4 2024 earnings call, he responded to analysts’ questions and shared his thoughts on such products, labeling them “a better source of truth.”

Coinbase Is in a Strong Position

In his opening statement, Armstrong said that he is thrilled about US President Trump’s promise to turn the US into “the crypto capital of the planet.” This goal is major good news for his company which ended 2024 with double the revenue it recorded in the prior year. As the full-year revenue soared to $6.6 billion, adjusted EBITDA reached $3.3 billion.

The regulatory tailwinds are expected to further nurture Coinbase’s growth, allowing it to expand its international footprint. The US will remain a core focus for Armstrong’s team as they aim to make USDC the number one dollar stable coin and popularize stablecoin payments.

Armstrong outlined three core goals for Coinbase, which include growing revenue, utility and scaling the company foundations.

He also said that Coinbase is responsible for powering crypto utility across many ads, including prediction markets, which have attracted even those who do not care about blockchain and crypto.

A Better Source of Truth

Armstrong described prediction markets as a “better source of truth” than traditional news and media sources. He said that these products have capitalized on people’s waning trust in media institutions and have cemented themselves as a “pretty interesting way to get to truth about what’s actually happening in the world.”

Armstrong cited the recent presidential elections in the US where prediction markets were once again more reliable than traditional polls. Such apps ranked among the most downloaded apps during the election, further highlighting the growing interest in such products.

Everybody is worried about misinformation. They are worried about bias. And the beautiful thing about these prediction markets is that people have real skin in the game.

Brian Armstrong, CEO, Coinbase

This rising interest in prediction markets has provided Coinbase with significant opportunities.

Prediction Markets Are Gaining Traction

Optimism in the future of prediction markets was further bolstered by the nomination of Brian Quintenz as chair of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). He is notably a board member of Kalshi, an up-and-coming prediction market that has been steadily gaining traction.

Quintenz’s appointment is highly likely, considering that he was appointed by the president and that the Senate is currently controlled by the Republicans. This paints a rosy future for prediction markets and aligns with Trump’s championing of crypto.

The optimistic picture of prediction markets was further reinforced by the appointment of Donald Trump Junior as a strategic adviser at Kalshi.