Campaign Staffers Profit From Election Betting Insight

A campaign staffer working on a closely contested statewide race admits they had a strong feeling something was off when an unreleased poll surfaced showing their candidate performing far better than expected. 

The numbers did not match internal campaign data, but the staffer quickly realized something else was shifting just as fast: the prediction markets.

“Everybody Made Money”

These online platforms, where users bet on the outcome of real-world events, had priced their candidate as a long shot. That gap between internal knowledge and public odds created what the staffer described as an obvious opportunity. 

Before the poll became public, they placed bets based on their private insight. When the poll was released, the market moved sharply, and the staffer cashed out with thousands in profit.

The case, verified through prediction market data reviewed by NPR, is among the first publicly reported examples of campaign insiders using nonpublic polling information to profit in real time. 

The staffer said this kind of activity was not unusual within their campaign environment, suggesting that others also engaged in similar trades when they believed they had an informational edge.

“Myself and others started placing bets before that poll came out,” the staffer told NPR under anonymity. “And then, sure enough as soon as that poll came out, the stock went up and everybody made money.”

Crossing the Fine “Duty of Confidentiality” Line  

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have exploded in recent years, handling billions in wagers on elections, politics, sports, and global events. 

A contract priced at 20 cents, for example, reflects a 20% implied probability of an outcome, allowing traders to profit when real-world information changes expectations.

Legal experts say the situation raises serious concerns. Using material nonpublic information from a campaign could potentially violate federal commodities laws if there is a duty of confidentiality. 

Regulators representing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are responsible for overseeing these markets, but enforcement in political contexts remains limited and uncertain.

Critics argue the lack of clear rules has created what some describe as a Wild West environment, where insiders can quietly monetize access to information not yet available to the public. 

In April, NPR looked into data that showed a Polymarket trader won roughly $300,000 after placing a correct bet on President Joe Biden’s last-minute pardons. 

The month prior, the same organization issued a report regarding a Polymarket trader bet of $553,000 on Iran and its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, right before an Israeli strike killed him. 

Others warn that this behavior risks undermining trust in both elections and emerging financial markets.

Campaign staffers interviewed for the report said that in earlier cycles, especially when prediction markets were less crowded, these opportunities were even easier to exploit. Today, increased participation and scrutiny may be changing that dynamic, but the underlying incentives remain.

As one staffer put it, the logic was simple. If you already know something the market does not, waiting can mean missing out.