Citizens: Prediction Market Combo Users Have Worse ROI than Parlay Bettors
Key Points
- Citizens says that traders using prediction market combos lose more than bettors using parlays
- Despite that, combos have been growing in popularity, and so have prediction markets as a whole
- The findings are in line with other studies, suggesting that the average prediction market trader has a worse ROI than bettors
Yet another analysis, this time from Citizens JMP Securities, has suggested that prediction market users lose more than their traditional sports betting counterparts. The report focused on prediction market combos and compared them with traditional sports betting parlays.
Combo Users Lose More, Mixed Users Lose the Most
According to Citizens experts, traders placing prediction market combos lose roughly 45% more than sports bettors using parlays. Citizens based its findings on anonymized user data from Juice Reel, an advanced bet tracker platform.
Per Juice Reel data, Citizens determined that the average loss of investment when using prediction markets combos was 18% – a figure that is noticeably higher than the 14% for sports betting parlays.
Analysts added that in terms of single bets, sports bettors’ median loss was 6%, while prediction markets users’ median loss was 8%. Citizens said that the numbers suggest that prediction markets result in worse outcomes for casual participants, while benefiting professional traders.
Citizens added that there are also those who use both sports betting platforms and prediction markets. These players, the firm stated, have the worst outcomes, with a median return on investment of minus 9% on sports betting parlays and 23% on prediction market combos.
The Claims Are in Line with Earlier Findings
This analysis comes as the prediction markets sector continues to experience unprecedented growth, despite the backlash faced by the industry. While several states have tried to crack down on prediction markets, alleging that their products constitute illegal gambling, the CFTC has joined in to sue said states, resulting in significant complications.
In the meantime, combo trades have cemented themselves as a very popular product and are, according to Citizens, responsible for 22% of the total trading volume on Kalshi for April. In the meantime, parlays were responsible for roughly 33% of the sportsbook handle for that month.
In any case, Citizens’ findings reflect other recent studies, which have also suggested that, on average, casual prediction market traders tend to lose more and have a worse return on investment.
In April, analyst Andrey Sergeenkov revealed that most Polymarket traders lose money, with only 15.9% of all users generating profit. This seemed to echo claims that prediction markets favor professional traders.
Fiona covers the betting and casino sectors, focusing her reporting on operational shifts within land-based markets. Drawing from a background in hospitality management, she investigates how physical venues adapt to modern demands—from cashless gaming floors to omnichannel VIP integrations. Her on-the-ground insights help executives navigate the technological and economic realities transforming brick-and-mortar casinos.
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