Futuur has added real-money markets to its existing play-money market. The provider of the largest number of prediction markets in one location has announced that it will officially launch its real-money markets for forecasters worldwide. Trading is also available in seven cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), Dogecoin (DOGE), Tron (TRX), Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and the USDC stablecoin.
Futuur Wants to be the Future of Prediction Betting
Futuur allows forecasters to place bets on future events in order to generate more accurate predictions based on the wisdom of the crowd. Pricing is similar to a stock exchange. It fluctuates as traders sell and buy positions in event outcomes.
This forecast is always current and combines information from many perspectives. It also accounts for changes over time. Futuur makes these forecasts publicly available and provides a percentage estimate for each outcome’s likelihood.
An automated market maker (AMM) facilitates the industry’s largest range of liquid markets for betting. This type of algorithm replaces the function of order books in traditional exchanges and has been increasingly used in DeFi (decentralized finance) to power decentralized exchanges such as Uniswap. Futuur’s AMM allows forecasters to instantly buy or sell a position without the need of a counterparty.
From Play Money to Real Money
Futuur, which has been operating since 2017, has used play-money markets to generate crowd-driven predictions for more than 44,000 events. It also receives bets from more than 25,000 forecasters.
The average Brier score, which statisticians use to assess the accuracy of probabilistic predictions, is 0.168 across all markets with bets. This is a remarkable achievement considering that the prize for bettors was social reputation and skill-building and didn’t include a financial component.
Futuur now offers the possibility to place crypto bets and puts more skin in the game. The platform expects its platform to generate more accurate forecasts. Tom Bennett, the founder of Futuur, says that the company is optimistic about the future prospects for its real-money markets.
He adds that he believes that an additional financial incentive will improve accuracy and help the company achieve its goal of improving the decision-making process by providing better forecasts.
Futuur even created a market to assess its markets’ performance. This asked whether real-money or play-money markets will be resolved by 2021. Current crowd-powered estimates for real-money and the play-money market versions are 71% and 75%, respectively. Real- and play-money markets operate separately and produce separate forecasts.
The Ministry of Justice in Curacao has granted the platform a gaming license to allow legal real-money betting. The service can now offer real-money wagering in most countries; however, not everywhere. The platform is not legally available in Australia, Colombia, the Netherlands, or the US. The free-money options, though, are still open to all markets.