Biden’s Withdrawal Boosts Harris, Alters 2024 Presidential Betting Landscape

In a surprising turn of events during the 2024 US presidential race, President Joe Biden announced on July 21 that he would be withdrawing from the election, which caused a frenzy in betting markets. The 81-year-old US President who is currently recovering from COVID-19 said that his obligation to his current office prevents him from running and has thrown his support behind Vice-President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. This has dramatically shifted political betting odds with Harris now being favored over former President Donald Trump.

Harris’s Odds Surge After Biden Exit, Shaking Up Betting Markets

Since Biden dropped out, there has been a huge increase in Harris’ odds of winning according to political betting exchanges. Her chances jumped by 10% which implies she has a 36% chance of winning. Conversely, Trump’s odds slightly decreased leaving him with an implied probability to win of around 62%. Betting markets have reacted quickly, reflecting new dynamics within the presidential campaign race.

Bookmakers in the UK where it is legal to bet on political outcomes were quick to react changing their prices accordingly. Trump remained the favorite at -200 but Harris went from +500 to +200. This move shows how shocked bookmakers were by what happened.

Harris becoming the frontrunner has also led punters to think about her potential running mate and California Governor Gavin Newsom is the favorite at +1400 with former First Lady Michelle Obama and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer both at +1600. It is thought that whoever becomes Harris’ VP choice will once again shake up the market as we get closer to election day.

Biden’s Exit Endorsed by Democrats, Trump Seizes Moment to Energize Base

Democrats have largely backed Joe Biden’s decision saying it was made for the right reasons. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer commended him for putting the country before the party while stating only someone with true love and patriotism could do such a thing, as reported by Forbes. 

Donald Trump took to his new Truth Social platform where he blamed President Biden’s tenure in office for a number of national problems and used this as an opportunity to energize his voter base. 

The speed at which things are changing means that political gambling has become a huge part of the 2024 election cycle. Mainland US may ban offshore betting sites, but they are still seeing record amounts being wagered on who will be the next US president. 

BetOnline reported that odds for Harris and Trump have been particularly volatile with President Trump’s chances going from -120 just before the last debate through -150 up to -200 after Joe Biden dropped out. Furthermore, after an assassination attempt at a rally in Pennsylvania on July 13, Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 presidential election increased significantly.