Kalshi and Prediction Markets Are Redefining the Race for the White House

The soon-to-come US presidential race is causing a giant surge in bets, with a load of cash, in the hundreds of millions, getting put down in prediction markets. 

As the Presidential Race Heats Up, Kalshi Becomes a Hub for Political Betting

At the heart of the US elections betting action is Kalshi, a platform that has got the US government’s okay and lets folks place bets on a variety of political happenings. The way Kalshi offers wagers on the elections is through something called event contracts that work like binary options.  Such wagers are getting very popular, especially the showdown involving ex-president Donald Trump and vice president Kamala Harris.

Starting in early October, Kalshi saw more than $140 million in wagers just on the presidential race. Trump had a big edge at first on their platform, with 65% of folks thinking he would win. But now, with the election date getting closer, things are tighter. Kalshi’s latest guess is Trump has a 56% shot at winning, while Harris has a 44% shot. This mirrors the close competition seen in national polls, where the two candidates are virtually tied.

Despite the legality of platforms like Kalshi, untamed offshore betting markets are booming. These sketchy websites let people place bets on who will win the elections but they are also quite risky.

The Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection has thrown up a red flag about such websites signaling the dangers of scams and theft. When people gamble on these platforms, they risk having their personal and financial details compromised.

Polymarket Challenges Kalshi in the Battle of Prediction Markets for 2024 Election Wagers

Other prediction markets such as Polymarket, give Kalshi a run for its money. Polymarket, which runs on the Polygon network, has pulled in almost $2.9 billion in bets on the upcoming elections. Wagerers at Polymarket, however, are leaning more towards Trump giving him a 61% shot at winning.

To bring in more crowd, Kalshi just started to let people put down deposits in USD Coin (USDC), appealing to the growing number of crypto-savvy traders. Even Robinhood is jumping on the elections wagering wagon letting some of its users throw down guesses on who is going to win the election.

The big surge in betting on who will win the presidential race is stirring up discussions on how it might change the way voters act.

Some folks reckon that if loads of bets pile up for one candidate, it might make people think the race is already decided and not bother to vote.

Regulatory concerns also persist, with some authorities questioning whether prediction markets could undermine the integrity of the electoral process. Nevertheless, supporters of these markets argue that they often provide a more accurate reflection of public sentiment than traditional polls.