Analysts Apprehensive of Las Vegas, Optimistic About Macau’s Growth

Despite a promising outlook for Macau, analysts remain cautious about the trajectory of the Las Vegas gaming market as Strip revenues continue to show year-over-year declines. With the difficult comparisons against the strong performance in late 2023, there are still concerns regarding the near-term prospects of Nevada’s flagship gaming destination.

The Strip Struggles to Regain Momentum

For the fourth consecutive month, the Las Vegas Strip reported a year-over-year decline in gaming revenue. Strip gaming revenue fell 3.1% to $692.1 million in October, due in large part to a 3.4% decrease in baccarat hold, from 15.3% to 11.9%. Baccarat win, year-over-year, declined 23%, while the baccarat drop itself decreased 2%.

According to a recent CDC report, analysts expect that downtrend to persist into November and December. Comparisons in those months are challenging because of unusually high baccarat hold rates in 2023- 19% and 22%. Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli noted that September 2023’s ending on a Saturday further inflated last year’s numbers.

We expect year-over-year gaming-revenue declines in both months, and we believe hold around F1 was as expected – less favorable than 2023.

Carlo Santarelli, Deutsche Bank analyst

Soft visitation numbers added to the challenges, leading to a decline in revenue per room and average daily rates for Strip hotels. Those dropped 10% and 8%, respectively, in October. Analysts expect further declines in November based on current observed room rates. While the Strip struggles, the locals’ casino market has shown resilience, showing the strength of non-tourist-driven gaming markets.

Macau Enjoys Enduring Growth

Contrasting Las Vegas, Macau’s gaming industry continues to show recovery momentum. Despite November’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) of MOP$18.4 billion ($2.29 billion) slightly falling short of market expectations, analysts predict a stronger performance in December. Carlo Santarelli expects Macau’s GGR for December to grow 3% year-over-year to $2.39 billion and improve 0.4% sequentially on a per-day basis. 

While year-over-year comparisons are becoming increasingly challenging, Santarelli and other analysts foresee continued growth through 2025. The industry is reaping the rewards of easing travel restrictions, robust VIP engagement, and a step-up in mass-market participation, all combining to power Macau’s recovery. The fourth quarter is tracking 10.4% higher year-on-year, reaching 79.5% of pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

The contrasting trajectories of Las Vegas and Macau reflect the unique challenges and opportunities faced by each of these leading gaming centers. Macau appears poised to outperform, while Las Vegas may have to reorganize its strategies. However, analysts agree that both markets hold long-term promise, with evolving consumer behavior and global economic conditions shaping their paths forward.