Tradeweb Partners with Kalshi to Bring Prediction Markets to Institutions

Tradeweb Markets has formed a strategic alliance with Kalshi aimed at introducing prediction-market intelligence to a broader base of institutional investors. This reflects growing interest in event-driven financial signals across global markets.

Tradeweb–Kalshi Deal Signals Growing Institutional Demand for Forecast Data

Under the arrangement, Tradeweb will integrate Kalshi’s event-based probability data into its electronic trading environment. This will allow professional clients to monitor real-time forecasts alongside traditional rates and credit information. The companies also confirmed that Tradeweb has acquired a minority stake in the prediction-market operator. However, the financial terms were not disclosed.

The collaboration is expected to begin with the distribution of Kalshi’s pricing and probability data across Tradeweb’s existing tools, including user interfaces, application programming, connections and downloadable datasets. The goal is to give portfolio managers and traders additional indicators when evaluating macroeconomic risks or policy outcomes that could have an influence on asset prices.

Executives from both firms suggested that prediction markets are becoming more relevant for institutions seeking forward-looking signals rather than relying on historical data alone. Tradeweb’s leadership indicated that such information could improve how investors measure uncertainty and allocate capital, while Kalshi’s management noted that the partnership would help its markets reach a larger audience of professional users.

New Analytics and Event Contracts Bring Probabilistic Data to Wall Street

Beyond data access, the companies intend to develop analytics that combine Kalshi’s event forecasts with Tradeweb’s pricing, liquidity and macroeconomic datasets. These tools are expected to help investors refine scenario analysis, pricing models, and hedging strategies by incorporating probabilistic information into their decision-making processes.

A longer-term ambition involves exploring an institutional marketplace for standardized event contracts. Such instruments could cover major economic releases, central-bank decisions, election outcomes, or other policy developments. Tradeweb would act as the institutional gateway, while Kalshi would supply the underlying market infrastructure and contracts.

The partnership comes amid rising activity around prediction markets, as exchanges and trading platforms experiment with alternative data sources to differentiate their offerings. While the sector still represents a small share of overall financial trading, industry participants view it as a potential complement to traditional derivatives and research-driven forecasts.

Tradeweb, which operates electronic marketplaces spanning fixed income, credit, and financial markets, processes trillions of dollars in daily trading volume and serves thousands of institutional clients worldwide. Kalshi, founded in 2018, operates a regulated exchange dedicated to contracts tied to real-world outcomes.

Together, the firms are positioning prediction-based signals as a new layer of information within institutional trading systems, suggesting that probabilistic forecasting could become embedded in mainstream investment workflows over time.