Police Probe $430,000 Polymarket Bet on Iran Strike Date

Israeli authorities have opened an investigation after a trader on Polymarket made hundreds of thousands of dollars by predicting the timing of last weekend’s joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Police Probe Polymarket User Over Precise War Bet

The account using the alias “Magamyman,” secured $430,000 after predicting that military action would start on 28 February. The payout happened early Saturday morning, moments after news alerts confirmed that Israeli and American forces had carried out attacks.

Investigators are now examining whether the winning trades were the result of extraordinary foresight or access to sensitive information, reported The Jerusalem Post. Law enforcement sources told local media that the pattern of wagers appeared precise, given that the market had assigned low odds to that specific date.

Polymarket, a blockchain-based platform where users trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes, recorded an estimated $529 million in total volume linked to the anticipated outbreak of hostilities. Of that amount, around $90 million backed a 28 February start date. Analytics firms have flagged several accounts that earned about $1.2 million by placing sizable bets before the strikes took place.

The trader in question has a history of accurate calls. In October 2024, the same account predicted an Israeli attack on Iran scheduled for 26 October — a date that security officials later indicated had been finalized days before. The user also wagered against strikes occurring on surrounding dates, signaling notable confidence in the exact timing. Following a string of successful trades, the account holder changed usernames.

US Lawmakers Question Legality of War Prediction Markets

Further scrutiny has focused on an additional bet worth more than half a million dollars predicting that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, would be removed from power. The contract paid out shortly before he was killed during the bombardment, which intensified suspicions among investigators.

Israeli police are working with security agencies to figure out whether classified military planning details were used to make money. The inquiry comes after earlier arrests of reservists accused of exploiting non-public information to place bets on the same platform.

The controversy has caught attention in Washington as well. US Senator Chris Murphy criticized the legality of such markets and argued that they create opportunities to profit from war. The White House has rejected suggestions that individuals close to President Donald Trump were linked to the trades. Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr. serves in an advisory role at Polymarket.

Authorities have yet to announce whether criminal charges will follow, but the case will intensify debate over regulation of prediction markets that allow anonymous betting on geopolitical crises.