Truss to Resign as PM by 2023, Bettors Believe

Bettors seem very pessimistic about Liz Truss’ tenure as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. So much so in fact, that people have wagered money on her departure.

Punters Distrust Truss

Following the latest developments in British politics, PM Liz Truss has lost the confidence of many of her colleagues. Her economic recovery plan was heavily criticized and it seems as if her tenure is hanging in the balance.

If Liz Truss departs from office before the end of the year, she would have had the shortest tenure in the history of the United Kingdom. And, according to Betfair’s users, this is very likely to happen. Right now, around 85% of bettors believe that Truss will vacate the PM spot by November 10 this year.

These results show that fewer and fewer people seem to trust Truss as a PM. According to earlier results, Truss was 3/1 to step out of the office before the end of the year. The latest results, on the other hand, show odds of 4/5 for Truss’ departure. It was noted that the distrust of other ministers has caused confidence in Truss to plummet.

Under normal circumstances, Truss cannot be evicted from the office before a year has passed. However, she may be pressured to resign as trust in the Conservative party hits all-time lows. While experts believe that a General Election would likely results in Truss’ loss, they doubt that one will be called anytime soon.

Smarkets Noticed Similar Trends

Smarkets, another betting exchange, noticed similar trends. According to Smarkets Politics users, Truss seems much more likely to vacate the office now, than she was a week ago. Prior to the scrutiny of Truss’ recovery plan, Smarkets placed the chances of Truss’s 2022 departure at 27%. Following the harsh critique of her plans, these chances soared to 67%.

Smarkets players believe that Rishi Sunak is the most likely candidate to replace Truss with a 37% chance. Another possible choice is Chancellor Jeremy Hunt who, according to Smarkets users, has a 20% chance of becoming the next PM. Other likely candidates are Ben Wallace and Penny Mordaunt with 16% and 10% respectively.

Liz Truss was appointed as Britain’s PM following the departure of the controversial Boris Johnson. Johnson’s leave caused a shakeup in British politics that resulted in the postponement of the long-awaited Gambling Act white paper. If Truss leaves, her departure would likely cause yet another delay.