PredictIt Gains CFTC Approval to Run Regulated Exchange

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved PredictIt to act as a regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse. This step ends years of regulatory challenges and shifts the platform into a new phase.

PredictIt Earns Dual Licenses, Opening Doors to Grow Political Markets

PredictIt known for letting users trade contracts tied to political results, will work within the same regulatory system as existing platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Aristotle, its parent company, shared plans to launch the updated exchange in October.

The decision comes after years of conflict between PredictIt and federal regulators. The platform operated under a “no-action” agreement, which protected it from enforcement as long as it stayed academic and kept trade sizes small. In 2022, the Biden-era CFTC canceled the agreement. They claimed PredictIt had not followed the rules. This sparked a long legal battle that PredictIt ended up winning earlier this year. The win has now opened the door to start talks about new licensing.

By getting dual approval as both a Designated Contract Market and a Derivatives Clearing Organization, Aristotle can now run a fully regulated prediction market in the United States. Company leaders said the setup helps to create more transparency and safety while opening doors to grow further. CEO John Aristotle Phillips called the approval an opportunity to create better and more available prediction markets, pointing to the company’s ten years of experience in the field.

Regulations Shifting Could Let PredictIt Expand Beyond Just Politics

Regulatory approval aligns with a larger change happening in Washington’s attitude toward event-based trading. The current CFTC leadership seems more willing to issue licenses to platforms that allow people to gamble on topics like elections or economic trends. Polymarket worked through some previous investigations and got permission to come back into the US market.

PredictIt, meanwhile, benefits by having restrictions on user activity and bet amounts lifted. The platform has hinted at plans to grow beyond its existing two dozen or so political markets, but it has not revealed specifics about new features yet.

A nonprofit research group is expected to oversee a new governance model, which could help ensure both public and academic contributions are maintained. Over 400,000 PredictIt users see this development as both a legal and functional win, backing the platform during its struggles with regulations. With plans to launch an approved exchange next month, Aristotle aims to set PredictIt against other regulated derivatives platforms, keeping its attention on political forecasting.