Prediction Markets React after Pope Francis Dies at 88

Pope Francis, who led the Roman Catholic Church and had a revolutionary impact on global religious leadership, died early Monday morning at 88 years old. His death came just hours after he gave a blessing during Easter celebrations in Vatican City. This event has sparked widespread grief throughout the Catholic world, and unforeseen effects in online prediction markets.

Pope Francis’ Death Triggers Quick Shift in Prediction Markets as New Papal Election Looms

Jorge Mario Bergoglio, born in Argentina, became Pope Francis in 2013, making him the first Latin American to lead the Catholic Church. His papacy lasted over ten years. People knew him for his work to promote the Church’s push for social justice and tackle problems like climate change, poverty, and LGBTQ+ acceptance.

Now that Pope Francis has died, the usual steps to pick a new pope will start. The College of Cardinals will meet in the next two weeks to choose the next pope. In the past, a new pope has been elected 15 to 20 days after a pope dies.

As the Catholic Church starts this serious transition, people online are reacting. Polymarket, a prediction markets platform that uses cryptocurrency, saw a big change in its user-driven market about whether “a new pope will be chosen in 2025.” Before Monday, users had bet over $1 million that the pope would not change this year. Now that Pope Francis has died, the people who bet that there would be no new pope in 2025 have lost their wagers.

Polymarket Sees $2.7M in Bets on Next Pope, with Pietro Parolin as Top Contender

Polymarket is also running a separate market on the next pope. Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s former Secretary of State, stands out as a top contender. The odds suggest he has a 36% chance of being elected. Another key figure is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines. His views match those of Pope Francis on forward-thinking Church reformation.

In total, people have bet over $2.7 million on various papal outcomes. This makes it one of Polymarket’s biggest active markets. Some players, like a trader named “syncope,” could earn thousands. This is because they placed early bets on a 2025 change.

Yet, Polymarket has faced backlash for its role in this matter. Critics have called out the platform, which operates beyond typical regulatory bounds, for hosting markets seen as tasteless, like wagers on rescue efforts or political health emergencies. As the Catholic Church gets ready to celebrate Pope Francis’ impact and pick who comes next, the mix of faith, grief, and guesswork highlights the moral issues tied to making money off predictions about personal events.