Prediction Markets Odds of Trump Seizing Greenland Rise

Following the US’s operation in Venezuela to capture its leader, Nicolás Maduro, many have once again started speculating that President Trump might decide to invade Greenland, and prediction markets are seeing an increase in the probability of this happening.

Prediction Markets Raise Odds of the US Invading Greenland

Trump has grown increasingly focused on acquiring control of Greenland, a Danish territory, despite the Nordic country’s leadership stating that it has no intention of ceding it. On Tuesday, the White House told Reuters that it was continuing to explore options for “acquiring” Greenland. 

According to statements from Trump’s office, acquiring Greenland is a national security priority of the United States. White House speakers also explained that the Trump administration is exploring various options to pursue the goal, with the use of the military being one of them.

With talks such as these, the odds of Trump taking the Arctic island have increased on various prediction markets. For example, Polymarket currently implies an 8% chance of an invasion in 2026, with the market having attracted more than $165,000 in trading volume to date. Meanwhile, the odds of the US taking control of “any part of Greenland” by the end of Trump’s term in 2029 sit at 38% on Kalshi. Interestingly, this isn’t even the highest they’ve been recently, as that rating sat at 46.6% on January 4, which is the day after Maduro was seized.

However, It’s Not Just Greenland that People Are Betting On

Of course, the US isn’t the only power with territorial ambitions for the acquisition of islands, as China has increasingly been bolstering its agenda regarding Taiwan. Recently, one Polymarket user bet $37,000 on China invading Taiwan, a clear indication that bets on geopolitics have quite the devoted following.

But back to US geopolitics and bets regarding them, Trump seizing Greenland isn’t the only thing people are betting on. The Panama Canal has also been in the president’s sights, as he has previously talked about how he wants to take it back. The United States once controlled the Panama Canal after its construction more than a century ago. However, it gave up that authority in the 1970s, and the Panamanian government took control of the important waterway on December 31, 1999.

Kalshi now puts the probability that Trump will “take back the Panama Canal” before his term ends in January 2029 at 36%. This is an increase from 28.8% on January 2, the day before Maduro was kidnapped, which shows how much these odds are influenced by other major political events.