Polymarket Maduro Bet Raises Insider Trading Concerns

A recent wager on Polymarket tied to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has stirred serious concern in US political and legal circles. 

The controversy reached a wider audience this week when the Coalition for Prediction Markets, which includes big prediction market operators like Kalshi, Coinbase, and Robinhood, ran a full‑page ad supporting a ban on insider trading in The Washington Post. 

The “Opening Salvo” Ad

The group wants federal lawmakers to get actively involved in regulating these markets and take a closer look at the way they do business, asking for clearer rules and more transparency.

In comments shared with Business Insider, a spokesperson for the group described the ad as an “opening salvo” in a broader effort to strengthen federal oversight, especially as different state regulators step in. 

The spokesperson added that they plan to spend seven figures on this campaign in the coming months.

A well‑timed, and thus highly controversial, bet on Polymarket at the start of the month was the one that triggered the heated talks. 

The Cause of Concern

Reports say a bettor placed a $32,537 wager on a contract connected to President Maduro’s removal from power just a few hours before US forces actually captured him on January 3. That small stake turned into more than $400,000 when the bet resolved.

As expected, the important payout raised questions and concerns because of how close it was to a real‑world event. Some voices claimed the timing of the bet looked suspicious, potentially hinting at someone using nonpublic information when making the wager. 

The same concern was also expressed by lawmakers in Washington, prompting Congressman Ritchie Torres to introduce a bill that would explicitly bar federal officials from trading on government‑linked contracts when they have access to inside information.

Polymarket, which is not part of the coalition pushing for new rules, argued that the ad shows “a clear contrast with offshore platforms where concerning scandals such as the Maduro trade have occurred,” suggesting they see themselves as different from unregulated markets that might attract questionable activity.

For the time being, this episode was enough to fuel a broader debate regarding the way prediction markets should be regulated in the US, with some industry backers asking for open, transparent oversight to protect legitimate traders and critics using the incident as further proof that more guardrails are mandatory.