MLB Commissioner Suggests League Should Work with Prediction Markets

During meetings with team owners in Palm Beach, Florida, Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred has announced that the league is considering a new partnership with prediction market platforms as part of its efforts to strengthen integrity safeguards.

Commissioner Manfred Wants to Work With Prediction Markets

According to the announcement, the organization hopes that partnering with a prediction market platform could allow the league to better safeguard the integrity of the sport than traditional sportsbooks. Manfred explained that team owners were briefed on the distinctions between prediction markets and conventional sports betting, and on why the league might consider doing business with prediction markets as part of its integrity strategy. 

He noted that the regulatory frameworks differ significantly, with sports betting governed on a state-by-state basis, while prediction markets fall under federal oversight. “There’s obviously an opportunity to work with the markets themselves to get the kind of integrity protections you want,” Manfred said.

To date, only sports organizations such as the UFC, the NHL, and MLS have formally announced partnerships with prediction market platforms. Like MLB, the NFL has indicated it may consider similar partnerships in the future.

Challenges Lie Ahead of Commissioner Manfred’s Idea

Prediction markets have, for a long time now, been in a somewhat gray area regarding regulation. Although sports betting is governed at the state level, prediction markets are formally overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 

This has led to many instances of various officials, both in federal and local governments, calling for stricter state-side regulation of prediction markets. For example, in early February, Letitia James, the Attorney General of New York, released a consumer alert describing prediction markets as “unregulated gambling.” She warned that sports-related contracts on these platforms may violate state law and could expose users to “significant financial risk.”

An additional hurdle to Commissioner Manfred’s idea is the ongoing betting scandal with pitcher Emanuel Clase. Since last year, the Cleveland Guardians player allegedly rigged pitches, and his involvement with bettors dates back to at least 2023.

The case has damaged the reputation of the MLB’s integrity, and Manfred has had to act as the fireman to calm this blaze. When asked why the integrity watchdogs or MLB had not identified the issue sooner, Manfred explained that sometimes it takes a lot of time for patterns like this to become clear.

Manfred might want to work directly with prediction markets to ensure the sport’s integrity and prevent cases like this from happening, but the fact remains that these platforms and operators are still relatively new and untested, so more challenges await the commissioner and the MLB.