Macau’s Gambling Scene Continues to Recover Faster than Initial Forecasts

In its latest report, UBS Group AG, one of the largest and most prominent banks in the world, says Macau’s casino revenue recovery is set to surpass earlier expectations, with several investment banks revising their forecasts upward for the sector.

Experts Predict Macau’s Gaming Revenue Will Further Increase

UBS now anticipates Macau’s full-year casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) to grow by 9% year-on-year in 2025, a modest upward revision of less than 1% from its previous estimate. UBS highlighted that operators focusing on high-end products and services are expected to outperform the broader market, as reinvestment trends stabilize and demand in the premium segment stays strong.

Despite the positive upward trend, the figure is still 16% below pre-pandemic levels in 2019. For 2026, UBS projects GGR to rise by another 6% year-over-year, although it will remain 11% below the 2019 figures. Additionally, the bank raised its 2027 forecast by 2%, predicting a 4% annual growth rate, which is still 7% lower than in 2019.

According to UBS, operators focusing on high-end products and premium service offerings are likely to outperform the broader market. The bank also projects that Macau’s mass-market casino revenue will grow by 7% this year and 6% in 2026, with an additional 4% increase expected in 2027. 

Meanwhile, VIP revenue forecasts were slightly adjusted, with the 2025 estimate revised down by 1% to a 22% annual growth, while the 2026 forecast remains at 6% growth, and the 2027 estimate was raised by 1%, to a 4% increase.

What Helped Contribute to Such Big Growth in 2025?

Major sporting events, such as the National Games and the Macau Grand Prix, played a key role in boosting revenue during the past few months. According to Citi Research, a subdivision of Citigroup Inc. (an American multinational investment bank and financial services company), premium gamblers exhibited strong spending patterns, with the segment’s betting volume estimated to have increased by 19% compared to last year. For the first eleven months of 2025, gross gaming revenue has risen 8.6%, reaching approximately $28.1 billion.

Looking ahead, analysts anticipate continued recovery in 2026 for both the mass-market and premium-mass segments, supported by a robust event calendar. While government budget projections remain more cautious than those from private analysts, recent monthly data from November and Golden Week performance have generally aligned more closely with consensus forecasts.