Macau’s Casino Industry Shifts to a More Mature Era of Growth

Macau’s gambling sector is facing a new reality. After years defined by explosive growth, abrupt collapse during the pandemic, and gradual recovery once borders reopened, the region’s industry may be entering a more mature phase. Operators must now adapt to slower revenue growth, tighter regulation, and a shifting customer base.

Macau Now Relies on High-Spending Mass Customers

Analysts from S&P Global Ratings reported that Macau has entered a new growth phase following the region’s post-pandemic recovery. However, this new chapter may be limited by capacity and softer consumer spending. Gross gaming revenue growth has slowed down, reaching 9.1% in 2025. This figure reflects weaker spending and limited casino capacity.

However, Macau’s outlook is far from bleak. Analysts expect continuous EBITDA growth among major concessionaires, supported by stable demand and promotional activity. Overall, operators will likely enjoy steady growth, relying on efficiency and higher-quality customers rather than sheer volume.

The end of junkets has reshaped Macau’s identity. Total gaming revenue for the region remains below pre-pandemic highs, as the high-volume, low-margin VIP market has largely disappeared. The region’s new business model combines tourism with entertainment to attract high-spending mass customers, supported by non-gaming amenities and closer regulatory oversight.

Problem Gambling Emerges as a Rising Concern

Macau has enacted key structural changes. The closure of the Landmark Casino at the start of this year ended the satellite casino system that allowed smaller venues to operate under the licenses of larger concessionaires. At its peak, Macau had more than 40 casinos. That number has now fallen to 20, all linked to the six licensed concession holders. The market has become more tightly regulated, aligning with Beijing’s aims to ensure greater control.

However, Macau’s consolidation may have caused some unintended consequences. S&P warns that market pressures could push aggregate discretionary cash flow into deficit by 2026, even if operating performance remains robust. The agency warns that a full return to pre-pandemic credit ratings would require sustained confidence that operators can keep balance sheets in check.

Macau’s transformation has also affected the region’s social structure. Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau data show that casino exclusion applications increased by 68% compared to the previous year. Such data indicates growing awareness of gambling harm as casinos focus more heavily on mass-market play. However, the sudden spike raises some concerns around accessibility and problem gambling.