Las Vegas Sands Faces Challenges Despite Analyst Optimism

Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli remains upbeat about Las Vegas Sands but recognizes the company’s tough spot in the face of ongoing economic and geopolitical obstacles. In a recent note to investors, Santarelli kept a “buy” rating on the stock even as he lowered the price target from $62 to $59 per share, pointing to valuation worries and market conditions.

Las Vegas Sands Slides Over 33% in 2025, Outlook Hinges on Macau and China Relations

Las Vegas Sands’ stock has taken a big hit this year, dropping more than 33% as the US-China relationship keeps getting worse after new taxes kicked in. The company makes most of its money from its Macau casinos, so it is affected by changes in China’s economy and rules.

Santarelli thinks the company can bounce back if a few things happen: Macau’s gambling money goes way up, the company does well in the second quarter of 2025, the US and China start getting along better, and people feel good about China’s economy again. He said these things could help the company do better than people expect and make investors trust it again.

Las Vegas Sands remains the top operator in Macau, commanding an estimated 22.4% of the market. However, the company has experienced a slight dip in its standing. Galaxy Entertainment follows holding 20.2% of the market share. Other rivals, including MGM, Melco, SJM Holdings, and Wynn Resorts, each control between 13% and 16% of the market.

Santarelli Lowers Las Vegas Sands Forecast but Sees Long-Term Upside

Santarelli cut his estimates for the company’s cash flow and revenue. He set his first-quarter prediction between $1.58 billion and $1.63 billion — far under the wider market’s guess of $1.8 billion. He noted a slowdown in the mass-market division, which brings in more profit, as a big concern. Yet, he said the company avoided pushy marketing tricks. This might have led to a small drop in market share but kept long-term value intact.

In Singapore, the Marina Bay Sands property of the company keeps showing steady performance, and people see it as a reliable contributor to the business. While growth there stays strong, Santarelli cautioned that the first half of 2025 might show weaker results because of strong comparisons to the previous year.

Overall, Santarelli thinks that Las Vegas Sands is still undervalued when comparing its EBITDA ratios to other companies in the same field. He views the current stock price as a chance for investors looking at the long term, assuming that the broader situation in Asia can become more stable.