Kalshi and Polymarket Eye $20B Valuations Amid Scrutiny

Prediction market giants Kalshi and Polymarket are reportedly aiming for valuations of around $20 billion each, according to sources cited by The Wall Street Journal. 

Early Talks

Both companies have been involved in talks with potential investors regarding possible capital raises that would push their market value to that level. 

These discussions are still early, and there’s no guarantee that investors will jump at the chance to back event contract platforms at such high valuations, especially as regulatory scrutiny grows.

To put the numbers in context, Kalshi was valued at $11 billion following a $1 billion funding round in late 2025. Polymarket received a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange last October, which placed its post-investment value between $9 billion and $10 billion. Reaching $20 billion would represent rapid growth for both companies in a short period.

On Par with the Big League 

Whether $20 billion is too ambitious is ultimately up to investors to decide. These companies often describe themselves as financial services or tech platforms, but their revenue largely comes from sports event contracts, which puts them in a space often compared to traditional gaming companies. 

At $20 billion, Kalshi or Polymarket would be roughly on par with Flutter Entertainment, the parent company of FanDuel. They would also outvalue DraftKings, currently at $12.55 billion, and surpass nearly every US-listed casino operator except for Las Vegas Sands.

Skeptics argue that such valuations, especially for Polymarket, could be overly optimistic. The company is not yet operational in the US, even though it had initially hoped to launch late last year.

Regulators in multiple states argue that these derivatives are essentially sports bets under a different name, and offering them without a proper license violates state gaming laws.

Recently, a New Mexico Democrat announced his intention to use the Farm Bill to block sports event contracts. Meanwhile, a California and Utah Republican duo introduced the Event Contract Enforcement Act, which would ban sports derivatives and similar contracts. A group ofDemocratic senators also recently proposed legislation aimed at curbing insider trading on yes/no exchanges.