Google Opens Advertising Access to Regulated Prediction Markets

Google plans to make a big change to its ad system later this month. It will let regulated prediction markets advertise their services on its platforms. This update, set for January 21, is the first time the company will allow ads for event-based forecasting exchanges in the US. However, this chance will apply to operators under federal oversight.

Google Treats Prediction Markets as Financial Products

Prediction markets are places where people buy and sell contracts linked to what might happen in the future — like who will win elections, how the economy will do, or who will win in sports. The prices of these contracts show what most people think will happen. People put money on outcomes they believe will come true, and they make money if they are right. Google’s new rules now see these offerings as financial products listed on exchanges, treating them more like regulated derivatives than gambling.

A small number of companies will be eligible as Google is restricting access to entities that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission labels as Designated Contract Markets, along with brokers registered with the National Futures Association who give access to these exchanges. Would-be advertisers must also finish a certification process showing they have all necessary licenses for the areas they plan to target and that they meet applicable financial and compliance requirements. Google emphasizes that advertisers have the responsibility to make sure their ads follow all federal and local rules.

Nevada Left Out of Google’s New Advertising Policy

The new policy gives operators like Kalshi and some NFA-regulated brokers a fresh way to promote themselves. At the same time, Google is setting clear limits on other products. It still bans binary options from its ad system, citing long-held worries about misleading ads and harm to consumers. This ban also covers offshore platforms and websites that offer signals or teach about binary options trading.

This change would not apply the same way in all US states. Nevada is left out because of ongoing legal fights that have limited several prediction market services there. Other markets, including Maryland, can still take part even though they have faced recent court challenges.

Google’s choice shows a wider shift where big tech platforms link ad access to a company’s legal status. For prediction markets with federal licenses, this change takes away a long-standing hurdle to visibility and opens up a way to reach people on search, YouTube, and partner sites. However, for those without regulation, the gap gets even bigger — creating a market where following the rules is not just about the law, but about being visible at all.