DraftKings Insider Explains How Company Sets Oscar Odds, Rise of Prediction Markets

The 98th Academy Awards are now down in history, with the ceremony having to navigate choppy industry seas, from fewer people turning up to watch premieres to emerging entertainment verticals, down to the fact that people are now increasingly flocking to prediction markets to make trades about the outcomes of the Oscars.

Avello, A Sworn Movie Buff, Talks Oscar Odds at DraftKings

Yet, this last trend, argues Johnny Avello, director of race & sports operations at DraftKings, may actually have some upsides. Much like traditional sports betting boosts interest in both mainstream and niche sports and leads to stronger engagement, prediction markets could also help sustain interest in the Oscars, a gambling industry insider argues.

DraftKings’ own forays into prediction markets have already helped enhance the platform, as Avello himself puts it, although the sportsbook already had ample experience setting odds for the Oscars.

Avello is speaking from experience: he is among the first traders (the people who work with bookmakers to set the odds) in the Oscars field, and he is a sworn cinema enthusiast.

Speaking to Covers.com, Avello shared a lot about how he sets odds and why he thinks prediction markets may play a growing role in how people engage with cinema. However, DraftKings had already begun accepting Oscars bets before launching DraftKings Predictions in late 2025.

Avello has described the Academy Awards as the “Super Bowl” of the movie world, and further clarified that people who are usually interested in placing a bet on this would mostly do so on one of six categories, including Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Director.

These markets, he says, account for the largest share of the handle (the total money wagered on a sport or, in this case, an entertainment event) for DraftKings. But setting up odds for the Oscars is far different than how businesses do it for sports events.

Setting the Odds for Oscars May Defy the Hard Logic of Sports Fans 

Rather, the oddsmakers have to rely on passionate individuals who also understand the technical side of the business. People would end up watching movies and shows and researching what is currently trending on streaming platforms.

“We make adjustments on how they’re wagered initially. And then, when the award season starts around November or December, we make more adjustments as they win certain awards. And then, of course, some awards carry more weight than others,” he told the publication.

As for prediction markets, they will play an ever-greater role in helping the company drive business, with the Oscars no exception.