Death of Charlie Kirk Sees Kalshi Withdraw Markets, Polymarket Question the Possibility of Civil War

The shooting of Charlie Kirk on Wednesday, September 17, at Utah Valley University was the latest act of political violence that has shocked the United States and sent ripple effects across the political spectrum, adding to an already yawning divide.

Prominent Activist Fatal Shooting Sees Prediction Markets Scurrying

Kirk, an outspoken activist who has espoused conservative values and has not been afraid to face off with liberal college students, many of whom were often opposed in their views, was an influential figure not only amongst Republicans and the Make America Great Again movement, but also across a wider crop of not-necessarily politically-affiliated young people.

Yet, although somewhat trivial, he was also a popular target for prediction markets on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. In the wake of his fatal shooting, Kalshi withdrew all of its contracts involving Kirk, including how many times he would appear on South Park.

However, the prediction platform has decided to withdraw these and other markets involving his personality, finding them inappropriate given the circumstances. It’s worth noting, though, that Kalshi had no issue running “Will Luigi Mangione get the death penalty,” in the wake of the UnitedHealthcare CEO shooting.

Kalshi and Polymarket have been close to the President, Donald Trump, and his sons, Eric and Donald Trump Jr, especially given that Jr. holds advisory and board roles with the companies, which has boosted investor confidence that prediction markets are here to stay, given that the Trumps have no issue with the model.

Kirk’s Tragic End Mobilizes Outpouring of Support

Regulators, of course, tend to disagree. “We are deeply saddened by today’s tragic news about Charlie Kirk,” Kalshi sent in a statement to customers, coinciding with the market withdrawal. President Trump has expressed his own regret over the events that led to Kirk’s death.

“The Great, and even Legendary, Charlie Kirk, is dead. No one understood or had the Heart of the Youth in the United States of America better than Charlie. He was loved and admired by ALL, especially me, and now, he is no longer with us. Melania and my Sympathies go out to his beautiful wife Erika, and family. Charlie, we love you,” President Trump tweeted.

At the same time, Polymarket seized the moment to pose the question: Will there be a civil war in the wake of Kirk’s shooting? While this fits with the whimsical, sometimes provocative nature of prediction markets, it also shows how easily the line can be crossed: sometimes, too much is simple.