Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France odds suggest that the UFC Flyweight championship belt won’t change hands on June 28. Pantoja is favored to win, but we don’t think Kara-France should be underestimated. To see whether the New Zealander can upset the UFC 317 odds, just keep on reading.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France Odds
| Moneyline | Odds |
|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | -235 |
| Kai Kara-France | +200 |
When, Where, and How to Watch?
- Place: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
- Date: Saturday, June 28, 2025
- Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- How to Watch: PPV
Alexandre Pantoja’s UFC 317 Odds Suggest He’ll Defend His Title
Alexandre Pantoja is 29-5 overall, with all of his five losses happening by decision. He’s on a roll with seven straight wins. During this run, we saw him defeat the who’s who of the UFC Flyweight Division, including Brandon Moreno, Brandon Royval, Steve Erceg, and Kai Asakura.
Royval and Moreno are currently in the first and second spots in the Divisional Rankings, but he’s already defeated them. Now, he’s facing the No. 4 fighter on that list, Kai Kara-France.
Pantoja looks more than capable of winning this matchup, not only because of his extensive experience but also because he’s got the skillset needed to hurt Kara-France. The thing is that the New Zealander doesn’t do well against good grapplers – and Pantoja is fantastic when grappling is concerned.
In fact, three of his last six wins happened by submission. He also lands 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is more than most fighters Kara-France’s faced so far. The only exception is former UFC fighter Rogerio Bontorin with 2.90.
Can Kai Kara-France Stage an Upset?
His nickname is “Don’t Blink” which is a testament to his fast striking that can put opponents to sleep if they lose focus for even a bit. He lands 4.56 significant strikes a minute and is 12-for-25 when KO/TKO wins are concerned.
The last time he defeated someone by this method was last summer when his victim was Steve Erceg. Before that, however, he was on a skid of two straight defeats. First, Brandon Moreno beat him by a TKO. Then, he lost to Amir Albazi by a split decision.
Speaking of his losses, we also saw him lose to Brandon Moreno one more time in the past, as well as to Brandon Royval. Obviously, he’s a hell of a fighter, but he doesn’t seem to possess the ability to defeat elite opponents.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France Prediction
If it weren’t for Demetrius “Mighty Mouse” Johnson, Alexandre Pantoja would be considered the GOAT of the Flyweight Division. He’s a fantastic fighter with plenty of weapons in his arsenal, a great fight IQ, and incredible stamina. While we do think Kara-France is a fine athlete, we don’t think he’s on the same level as “The Cannibal.”
Pick: Alexandre Pantoja