Swift Engagement Polymarket Odds Surged Hours Before Announcement

The relationship between NFL tight end Travis Kelce and global pop icon Taylor Swift has drawn significant media attention since they went public in September 2023. Starting December 31, 2024, Polymarket users have been able to place bets on whether the couple would get engaged in 2025. Interestingly, the odds of an engagement spiked by 20% on the platform just hours before the couple made the official announcement.

Swift and Kelce Announce Engagement with Odds Surging Just Hours Before That

While many fans anticipated that Kansas City Chiefs star Travis Kelce would propose to Taylor Swift shortly after his team’s Super Bowl victory in February 2024, he took his time. According to reports, Kelce proposed about two weeks ago while at a house in Missouri with friends, pulling Swift aside for a private moment before popping the question. The couple chose to keep the news private before making a public announcement.

Leading prediction platforms had been tracking the timing of a potential proposal. Both Kalshi and Polymarket (which are prediction market platform that allows traders to bet on the outcome of future events such as sports competitions, elections, and others) had set the odds of a 2025 engagement at around 50/50. On Polymarket, the probability was as low as 25% on Tuesday morning, but it surged to 45% just hours ahead of the official confirmation.

One User Invested Big Hours Before the Announcement Went Live 

Taylor Swift wasn’t the only “lucky one” when Travis Kelce proposed, as one bettor on Polymarket walked away with thousands of dollars after accurately predicting the date of the NFL star’s proposal. Less than 22 hours before the viral announcement, a user named “romanticpaul” grew increasingly confident that Kelce and Swift would tie the knot, placing bets that the couple would get engaged by 2025.

Then, around 3 pm ET on Monday, the user ramped up their bets, purchasing 199 “Yes” shares at 30 cents each. On Polymarket, the payout for any successful bet is capped at $1 per share, meaning romanticpaul stood to make 70 cents profit per share if the engagement happened by year’s end.

At 12:46 pm ET on Tuesday, just minutes before Swift and Kelce made their announcement, romanticpaul placed even more bets, acquiring nearly 1,200 additional “Yes” shares at under 50 cents each. At that time, the market still estimated the odds of an engagement to be less than 50/50. 

Some wondered whether this trader had insider information about the upcoming proposal, while others pointed out that with only $500 wagered in total, it seemed more like a fortunate guess.