Study Says Prediction Markets Users Lose Money Faster than Sports Bettors

A new report by Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender, based on anonymized wallet data from tracking platform Juice Reel, finds that retail users on prediction market platforms are performing worse than those betting through legal US sportsbooks.

Study Shows Prediction Markets Users Lose More

The report found that the median return on investment for prediction market users was -8% from July 2025 through the publication date. This is compared to -5% for bettors in the legal US sportsbook market over the same period and -7% in a prior version of the report. It also examined users who are active on both legal sportsbooks and prediction platforms simultaneously. This crossover group posted a median ROI of +1% on sportsbooks versus -6% on prediction markets, leading Bender to conclude that such users may be lower-quality customers for traditional betting operators. 

Furthermore, on Q4 2025 earnings calls, gaming executives estimated that prediction markets accounted for 0% to 5% of displaced sports betting volume, broadly aligning with Citizens’ own 5% estimate. Earlier this month, Bender revealed another report, which claimed that betting data providers would greatly benefit from the rise of prediction markets. 

Who Is Using Prediction Market Platforms?

Bender’s report referenced a call hosted by Citizens with two professional bettors, who said prediction markets offer an appealing path to positive returns because retail players take the opposing side. One participant added that being on the opposite side of the public is the ideal scenario, describing market-making as highly attractive and likening the opportunity to operating platforms such as DraftKings and FanDuel.

Drawing on Sensor Tower data, Bender’s report also said 24% of Kalshi users are under 25, with the company reporting a median user age of 31. In comparison, this age is 35 for DraftKings and FanDuel. It also highlighted that about 90% of DraftKings’ revenue is generated by users aged 30 and above.

The report further pointed to a potential drag on new customer acquisition, noting that app downloads for FanDuel and DraftKings declined by 18% and 13%, respectively, between September 2025 and February 2026. Over the same period, Kalshi recorded 6.3 million downloads, with its younger-leaning user base potentially helping to explain part of that growth.

Finally, it should be noted that while Bender’s report gives great insight into the spending habits and profiles of prediction market users, it is not the first study claiming that said users lose more money than more traditional sports bettors. Previously, there have been other such reports, and Kalshi has even disputed the claims that regular prediction market users lose money faster than their traditional sports betting counterparts.