Prediction Markets Put Risk of Donald Trump’s Second Term Ending Early High

Prediction markets and platforms have been hailed by the MAGA faithful as the best way to gauge electoral attitudes, replacing conventional sociology with a money-talks approach, and it has so far worked. Donald Trump is currently back in the White House, after prediction markets posted him as a decisive winner.

Prediction Markets Are Betting on Trump’s Third Impeachment

However, these same platforms are now betting that POTUS may run into “unprecedented” trouble during his second time around at the nation’s helm. Impeachment may be on the cards for the firebrand politician who got elected on a platform of isolationism, protectionism, and anti-immigration rhetoric.

Now, though, POTUS would like to tone it down and start paying attention as UK-based prediction market Smarkets is giving the probability of a third impeachment of President Trump (two attempts fell short during his first term) that actually succeeds at 53.48%.

At the same time, 45.05% seem fairly confident that an impeachment is not on the cards at all. Yet, it really depends on who you ask. Smarkets may be appealing to a more European crowd that is not, to put it mildly, a huge fan of the Trump presidency.

Across the pond, Kalshi, a rival that is tied to the Trump family as the President’s son is a strategic advisor for the platform, sees its user base more pessimistic about an impeachment – 53% believe that it would not happen, but a decent 48% are favoring that outcome as the more probable one.

Trying to Predict the Most Unpredictable President in History

Frankly speaking, this is just all wild speculation. While the probability of President Trump fumbling core policies, such as tariffs that had to be lifted overnight because of the severe impact they had on the Dow, his ability to spin his tale remains his greatest political asset, so much that politicians are actually afraid to oppose Trump for fear of the President designating them as a public enemy with unpredictable consequences.

Lawmakers have confessed privately that, even within the Grand Old Party, politicians are afraid not to face ire from Trump’s supporters. An impeachment may be a highly-probable event, as both Smarkets and Kalshi accurately note, but there are fewer people who would be willing to move forward with it than there were during Trump’s first term.