Prediction Markets Face Public Skepticism Despite Rising Visibility

A recent national survey adds fuel to the discussions around prediction markets. Results reveal that many Americans see platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket as a familiar form of betting in a different guise, rather than a new kind of financial tool. The findings also underlined broad skepticism, particularly when prediction markets intersect with sports.

Participants Were Worried About the Impact on Teenagers

​The March polling, commissioned by advocacy group Gambling is Not Investing and conducted by Morning Consult, involved more than 15,000 participants from across the United States. A strong majority of respondents, 81%, believe that betting on sports outcomes through these platforms constitutes another type of wagering. The viewpoint spans all age groups and political affiliations, indicating that the debate is not about ideology.

Participants also expressed notable concerns about the impact of prediction markets on young people. 77% worried that platforms allowing access to teenagers could lead to long-term gambling-related harm. Unlike licensed sportsbooks, which typically require users to be 21, some prediction market companies operate under different regulations, raising questions about oversight and accountability.

Language appears to play a central role in how these products are perceived. The prediction market industry frequently uses words such as  “event contracts,” “futures,” and “swaps.” However, 73% of participants agreed that such phrasing made it more difficult for people, especially younger users, to understand the risks involved. For critics, such legal ambiguity conceals what many perceive as a form of betting.

Prediction Markets Face Rising Scrutiny

​Mick Mulvaney, a former White House chief of staff who now leads Gambling is Not Investing, described the matter in relatively straightforward terms. He argued that products that resemble betting should be regulated in the same manner. His organization has publicly demanded clearer boundaries, arguing that the current ambiguity could undermine existing safeguards.

​Prediction markets are trying to disguise their sports betting products as a financial investment, misleading Americans, and dodging consumer safeguards like age requirements.

Mick Mulvaney, Gambling is Not Investing executive director

Previous data shows that prediction markets remain a niche product despite their rising popularity. A separate poll by Ipsos found that only about one out of five Americans understood how these platforms work. By comparison, traditional sportsbooks retain significantly higher public recognition. Crucially, 59% of respondents agreed that prediction markets should be regulated the same way as gambling companies.

​These results come at a critical time for prediction markets, as such platforms are struggling to gain mainstream appeal. Market leaders Kalshi and Polymarket maintain that their products qualify as financial instruments under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rather than state gaming authorities. The distinction remains highly contentious, as several state regulators have launched legal challenges.