Polymarket Now Puts Donald Trump Ahead Thanks to $26M Bet

Although most polls will tell you that the November elections are a toss-up, several Polymarket bets, totaling $26 million and possibly coming from the same source, would suggest that Donald Trump, the GOP candidate, has a significant lead over his Democratic counterpart.

Trump is Now Favored in Polymarket Odds to Win the Presidency

Because of the $26 million wagers carried out by four accounts and put on a second Trump’s term in the White House, Polymarket predicts that the former President has a 19.4% lead in the race against Harris, which essentially will all but guarantee his reelection.

This is an interesting observation because apart from traditional polls conducted by private companies, Polymarket’s own polls have long suggested that Trump and Harris are neck-and-neck, with the first significant change to arrive on October 5 from which point on, the Democratic candidate has been falling steadily behind.

Presently, Trump has an implied reelection probability of 59.7%, with Harris trailing at 40.3%. Another curious thing to observe here is that Polymarket’s polls go against conventional pollster wisdom, which still puts Harris as the more likely winner with a 53% chance of dominating her Republican counterpart.

Trump though is enjoying the endorsement of increasingly powerful and unequivocal people – including Elon Musk, the world’s richest person and a firebrand tech maverick, and the Las Vegas Review-Journal, one of the most influential media outlets in Nevada, an important swing state.

The former president also seems to be ahead in conventional polls in the Silver State. However, Polymarket is a platform that determines the odds based on betting volumes. Because the $26m was placed over two weeks, and there were no counter bets matching or coming close to that amount, the platform has now shifted the odds significantly in Trump’s favor.

Don’t let the odds fool you 

This is not to say that it still accurately predicts what is coming next in November. Especially when you consider the nature of the $26 million bets. What has become clear is that the bets were placed by a single entity – or at least it’s very likely that they have been.

However, the person or group placing the bets did not want to be discovered or tied to the same source of funds. That is why the Twitter account @Domahhhh investigated the matter and said that he found four separate accounts that have been tied to the bets, to name:

• Theo4
• Michie
• PrincessCaro
• Fredi9999

All of the four accounts had received deposits from Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange, and made the bets on Trump. Domahhhh was even able to contact Fredi9999, but the conversation quickly turned sour, after the Twitter sleuth pressed the account holder on the nature of the bets and its apparent inter-connectedness.

Fredi9999 did not take too many questions and quickly shut the conversation by blocking Domahhhh but not before revealing enough for Domahhh to conclude that he was a “French trader” who previously resided in New York, and was not “politically motivated,” but still believed that Trump was a 75% favorite.

Domahhhh’s analysis of the situation is much more in-depth and worth reading in its entirety. Yet, one takeout stands out. Why does he care? Because, as he puts it – is this a super smart entity or a trading firm that knows something that he does not know? In other words – should he be scared?

Or rather – is this an “idiot” betting on what he hopes would become true? And if so – should Domahhhh and other people backing Harris be happy about it?