Polymarket Bet Worth $37K Placed on China Invading Taiwan

Never mind President Donald Trump’s ebullience when he was announcing the successful extraction of President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela on Friday, January 2, in a special operation that involved Delta Force soldiers on the ground, and a massive bombardment of Caracas, the capital.

The abrupt geopolitical shock and saber-rattling over the future of Greenland, part of the Kingdom of Denmark, an allied country and a NATO member, raised eyebrows even further. 

Someone Cashes In on Venezuela’s Raid, Taiwan Next?

At least one Polymarket user made a killing after they placed $32,000 wager on Maduro’s “removal” shortly before President Trump held his bizarre briefing, and vowed to run Venezuela through Viceroy Marco Rubio, also the Secretary of State, and a living barometer of how embarrassing his boss’s ramblings have become.

The aforementioned user ended up making a killing, fetching $436,000 on Maduro’s removal from power – literal kidnapping if we have to cross the T’s and dot the i’s – fueling rumors that the administration had leaked the information, and some of those in its inner circles have turned to brazen profiteering.

However, this is not the only hair-raising bet that has been placed on Polymarket, with another user now betting $37,000 on China invading Taiwan, a self-governed island that Beijing claims as part of its territory, despite opposition from Taiwan’s government, and the majority of its people.

Unlike the bet on President Maduro, the invasion of Taiwan appears to belong to the realm of the speculative, whereas the Venezuela wager could have been the work of someone in the President’s inner circle – or a person who was aware of the dynamics. 

This circle is not very wide, but its proclivity to brag in chats and ramble off is infamous. When asked why Congress wasn’t informed about the pending operation, the White House responded that it feared security leaks.

Geopolitics and High Stakes 

Present at that statement was Secretary of Defense Pete Hesgeth, a man who may be best described as a fountain of security leaks, not least for betting on sportsbooks from his personal phone- under his own name, no less – and using the device for work, handling classified exchanges. 

Yet, do not expect Polymarket’s geopolitical wagers to go away, just because cronies may be onto a big payday. Last year, an Institute of the Study of War analyst purposefully made “unauthorized edits” to an area of control map covering the Russian full-scale war on Ukraine, prompting a similar prediction market payout.