Polls Predict Close Harris-Trump Race, Betting Markets Disagree

After clearing up its hurdle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi, the regulated exchange and prediction market, announced earlier this month that it recorded a surge in demand for betting markets on the upcoming Presidential Election in the United States. Now, while official polls predict that the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will be a close one, betting markets suggest Trump is in the lead.

Election Betting Markets Give Trump Advantage

Much has changed since the last election, considering the widespread expansion of legal betting across the nation. This growth helped deliver legal betting options to millions of Americans. And while some may consider only wagering on sports, others see the upcoming election as the new hype.

With days left until the Presidential Election, so far, a total of $119,282,389 is traded on Kalshi. Officially, the platform offers trading of events contracts which in essence is an activity similar to betting. At the time of writing, the platform estimates a 60% lead for Trump compared to the expected 40% result for Harris. Still, the results continue to vary but earlier this week, Trump was presented with an even bigger lead of 65.2% when compared to Harris’ result of 34.8%.

While Kalshi accepts customers from the US, this is not the case for Polymarket, another platform that offers trading on the upcoming Presidential Elections. Accepting bets from all across the globe but not in the US, so far, a staggering $2.78 billion is wagered on the winner of the elections.

However, similar to Kalshi, the platform gives the advantage to Trump. At the time of writing, the possibility of Trump winning the US Presidential Elections is at 65%, compared to Harris’ 34.9%.

Besides the advantage the two platforms give for Trump, they offer a wide range of other politically related wagers, including popular vote and other niche bets.

Many Throw Money on Things They Don’t Understand

Considering the expansion of betting, an expert commented on the interest in wagering on the elections. Thomas Gruca, a marketing professor at the University of Iowa, who was recently interviewed by The Guardian, pointed to the interest in the ballot betting that is “orders of magnitude larger,” when compared to previous ballots.

The expert was skeptical, considering the nationwide expansion of betting. According to Gruca, this expansion “increased the number of people who like to throw away their money on things they don’t understand.” This transitions to election betting too, considering that the professor said that many people will think “I picked the Raiders-Jets game, therefore, I can pick a president.”

Focusing on betting market moves, Gruca said that they show how smart the people who wager on them are. The professor pointed to the possibility of people placing wagers to move the market in the direction they want simply by pouring money. This signals the need for limits, Gruca added.

Just like official polls on the election, the gambling ones continue to change. Undoubtedly it will be interesting to see which prediction would materialize.