Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov UFC 318 Odds, Time, and Prediction

Online sportsbooks seem to have already written off Paulo Costa ahead of UFC 318, but this might be premature. Sure, his recent record doesn’t inspire much confidence, and Kopylov’s no joke, but it’s not like Costa’s out of gas.

At 34, he still has the tools to make waves in the middleweight division. The question is: will he show up ready to use them? That’s the question we’ll try to answer in this Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov preview.

Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov Odds

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When, Where, and How to Watch?

• Place: Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana
• Date: Saturday, July 19, 2025
• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
• How to Watch: PPV

Paulo Costa Might Be the Best UFC 318 Pick for Underdog Fans

There was a time when Paulo Costa looked like a wrecking ball destined for UFC gold. Explosive, jacked, and aggressive, he powered his way through the middleweight ranks and earned a shot at Israel Adesanya in 2020.

But that title fight ended in a TKO loss, and things went downhill from there. Costa has lost three of his last four fights, with the lone win being a decision over Luke Rockhold, who retired right after.

That sounds rough, but Costa’s still just 34 and we don’t think he’s lost his power or intensity. As a reminder, he’s one of the most prolific strikers in the division, landing 6.22 significant strikes a minute.

His fighting style is a bit chaotic, the result of which is that he gets hit a lot (6.56 times a minute). In fact, that’s what cost him in practically every fight that he lost so far in the UFC.

Has he learned his lesson? We think he has, but he’ll have to work extra hard to outsmart such a dangerous opponent as Roman Kopylov.

UFC 318 Odds Suggest Roman Kopylov Will Knock Costa Out on July 19

Roman Kopylov is 14-3 overall with 12 wins by KO/TKO. He’s a huge favorite to beat Costa and his UFC 318 odds of -125 suggest he might get another KO/TKO win.

The Russian is a sharp striker, throws crisp combinations, and keeps pressing forward. He’s won four of his last five fights, with three KOs along the way.

Kopylov doesn’t waste energy on flashy movement. Instead, he closes the distance and bangs, but that also leaves openings.

He’s not as fast or fluid as Costa, which could matter if this fight goes past the first round. If Costa targets the body early, Kopylov might start to fade.

Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov Prediction

Paulo Costa needs to take this fight seriously as another loss – especially if it’s by KO – could mean it’s time to pack his bags and leave the UFC. Our prediction is that he’s going to take a more tactical approach and try to tire Kopylov out.

If he manages to survive without getting KO-ed, he might be able to land enough strikes to get back on the winning track.

Pick: Paulo Costa by Decision