NFL Warns Prediction Market Platforms About Easily Manipulated Events

In an official letter, the NFL urged prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket to stop offering trades on events that could be easily influenced or known ahead of time. 

NFL Issues Letters to Prediction Markets Operators

These include things like what commentators say during broadcasts, which celebrities attend games, and outcomes tied to the upcoming draft. According to the NFL, the goal is to shield players, staff, and others involved in games from “unfair and unwanted allegations” connected to gambling and prediction markets. 

It specifically raised concerns about four categories:

• events that one person could easily manipulate, such as missed field goals
• outcomes that are predictable in advance, like draft selections, player signings, and coaching changes
• anything involving officiating
• topics it considers “inherently objectionable,” including player injuries and fan safety

Many of the NFL’s objections in the letter mirror restrictions it already seeks from traditional sportsbooks. However, the NFL also expressed concerns about markets tied to broadcaster mentions and celebrity attendance, which are two types of propositions that sportsbooks typically do not offer.

Officials Comment on the Matter

NFL executive vice president Jeff Miller said that certain individuals would have access to information that they could potentially use illegally. With its recent letter, the league is trying to distance itself as much as possible from wagers based on such insider information that might arise in this space.

Miller also explained that the letter comes after months of discussions between the NFL and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal agency that regulates prediction markets. While the NFL does not have a formal arrangement with the CFTC, Miller said the league believes the regulator appreciates its perspective.

Polymarket responded to the NFL’s letter, saying it is looking forward to working with sports leagues to safeguard both the integrity of the games and the overall fan experience. Just last week, the company introduced new anti-insider trading rules, with Neal Kumar, Chief Legal Officer of Polymarket, explaining that this is a move to make expectations clear for all participants.

Under the new chair, Michael Selig, the CFTC has taken a more assertive stance on which types of markets are permissible. He said that trading on sports outcomes has always been legal, though previous administrations blocked it. With sports now integrated into the prediction market landscape, Selig emphasized the importance of the agency collaborating with leagues. 

Some professional sports leagues have already embraced prediction markets, with the most recent example being that of the MLB signing a partnership with Polymarket.