New Data Shows That Most Polymarket Users Lose Money

Prediction platform Polymarket claims that its products leverage the wisdom of the crowd to price the future. However, most users face an unfortunate reality. New research by analyst Andrey Sergeenkov reveals that most Polymarket traders lose money. Out of approximately 2.5 million participants, only 15.9% generated profits. The remaining 84.1% are in the red.

The Data Reveals Some Interesting Patterns

The imbalance becomes sharper at higher income levels. Only about 2% of users earned more than $1,000 in total. Traders who exceeded the $10,000 mark constitute less than one percent of users, while only about 840 users were six-figure earners. For a platform often associated with viral success stories, the broader picture is much closer to traditional speculative markets, where a small minority captures most of the upside.

According to the study, timing is one of the most crucial factors. Polymarket’s user base surged around the 2024 US election cycle, attracting a wave of newcomers. However, many of these users had little experience in prediction markets or even trading in general. Sergeenkov’s study concluded that performance generally declines as participation increases.

Consistency is another issue. While some users post strong monthly returns, very few may sustain a winning streak. Just over 1% of traders earn more than $1,000 per month. People who consistently make more than $5,000 are even rarer, and maintaining that level over consecutive months becomes almost impossible. Data shows that over half of profitable traders hit their peak in a single month, with most leaving the platform soon after.

Very Few Successful Users Stay Active for Long

According to the study, reality rarely matches Polymarket’s public image. Social media is filled with claims of easy profits and stories of traders walking away with large sums in short periods. While those cases are real, they are statistically uncommon. Only a minuscule percentage of users who averaged more than $5,000 per month remained active for more than a year. The typical pattern is short bursts of activity rather than steady income.

The structure of prediction markets can explain these results. Prices reflect crowd sentiment, meaning traders often bet against a collective. Finding an edge in such an environment can be challenging, especially in high-profile markets where information is widely available. Meanwhile, the constant influx of new users could further widen the gap between experienced traders and newcomers.

Most new traders lose money. It would be helpful if influencers promoting the platform at least taught their audience the basics: bankroll management, how prediction markets work, and why betting on impulse is a fast way to lose everything.

Andrey Sergeenkov

Concerns about fairness have also become more prominent. The platform has faced scrutiny over suspected insider trading, especially in political markets. To alleviate these concerns, Polymarket has tightened its rules, banning trades based on non-public or improperly obtained information and restricting participation by individuals who could influence outcomes.