Mark Wahlberg Rumor Drives $24M Action on Prediction Markets

A Kalshi prediction on whether Mark Wahlberg would attend Super Bowl LX has been resolved. At the conclusion of the market, the trading probability of “No” was at 98%, which turned out to be correct.

Even though the New England Patriots were playing, whom Wahlberg is known as a big fan of, the actor did not make an appearance.

According to a post by David Purum, in the end, more than $24 million had been wagered on Kalshi. The amount is higher than all of the other 31 celebrities with Super Bowl-related predictions. Donald Trump had second place after Wahlberg; he had only a fifth of the amount wagered on him.

How the Rumor Started

This prediction originated after a rumor was supposedly started by Wahlberg’s eldest daughter, Ella, spreading through sororities and fraternities.

On social media, people were convinced that the actor’s daughter, a member of a sorority at Clemson University, had shared that Wahlberg would be watching the Patriots game live.

Following this, Ella shared a post on X saying:

“Every idiot who thought their fraternity was at the front of the information mill and bet on Mark Whalberg deserves to lose their money”.

Prediction Markets under the Spotlight as Concerns over Insider Trading Rise

When it comes to prediction markets, those who possess insider information will always be able to profit over those without.

False rumors could make people who spread them rich, like the one about Wahlberg, where anyone with knowledge of the actor’s intentions would have been able to profit.

One Polymarket account, not even a day old, was able to make 20 predictions on the Super Bowl’s halftime show, 17 of which were correct.

These predictions were placed just two days before the event took place.

Another account on Polymarket made a successful prediction on the US invasion of Venezuela just hours before US forces entered the country’s capital, which brought the bettor more than $400,000 in profit. Criticism of insider trading ran wild.

More than $1.2 billion in prediction market trades on Super Bowl LX have been recorded on Kalshi, with Polymarket only taking in $55 million of the action.

Neither platform has addressed issues surrounding possible insider trading.