Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas 2 UFC Vegas 101 Odds, Time, and Prediction

Five years and three months after Amanda Ribas beat Mackenzie Dern by unanimous decision, the two will meet again. Ribas is expected to win again, with her odds being -205. In this preview, we’re going to explain whether oddsmakers are right to think so.

Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas 2 Odds

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When, Where, and How to Watch?

• Place: UFC Apex in Vegas
• Date: Saturday, January 11, 2025
• Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
• How to Watch: ESPN

Mackenzie Dern Plotting Her Revenge

Mackenzie Dern is the only female UFC fighter with a 3^rd-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. She’s 14-5 overall in MMA, with 50% of her wins happening by submission, which is a testament to her grappling prowess.

The other 50% of her wins happened by decision in fights in which she kept her opponents either in a clinch or pinned down to the floor. She’s got zero wins by KO/TKO, but the fact is that her striking skills have improved significantly over the last couple of years.   

Dern did, however, get KO-ed against Jessica Andrade in 2023, suffering another four knockdowns. She also got knocked down by Amanda Lemos in the following fight. However, in her most recent outing, she out-boxed Loopy Godinez to win by unanimous decision.

Amanda Ribas’ Push for a Title Shot

Amanda Ribas (13-5) is right in the UFC Women’s Strawweight Rankings, but a win over Mackenzie Dern could push her toward the top. Given that Dern is sixth in the rankings, a win at UFC Vegas 101 would get Ribas to that spot or even higher.

If such a scenario does happen, she could even get to fight a sort of a title-eliminator fight with Tatiana Suarez, Virna Jandiroba, or Jessika Andrade. But that dream will go down in flames if she doesn’t beat Dern on January 11.

Luckily for her, she’s got the set of skills necessary to deal with Dern. Same as her, she’s a hell of a grappler who’s been practicing BJJ and judo since childhood. Unlike Dern, however, she’s also a prolific striker with four wins by KO/TKO.

One of those was a TKO win (spinning wheel kick + punches) over Luana Pinhero in what was Ribas’ most recent fight in the strawweight division.

Since then, she fought a flyweight bout with Rose Namajunas but lost by a somewhat controversial unanimous decision – she landed just 10 significant strikes fewer, while making four takedowns and suffering just one.

Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas 2 Prediction

Amanda Ribas is a much more well-rounded fighter than Mackenzie Dern, whose strongest weapon is grappling. Unfortunately for Dern, even though her BJJ skills are superior to those of Ribas, we don’t think she’ll be able to make use of them and win by submission. Ribas is likely to turn this into a striking contest, which could bring her a KO/TKO win late in the fight.

Pick: Amanda Ribas by KO/TKO