Last Minute Bet on Polymarket Raises Suspicions of Insider Trading

Possible leaks of the National Heads-Up Poker Championship might have been influenced by a Polymarket prediction on the identity of the winner.

The odds of winning one specific contestant have skyrocketed after the supposed leak of information.

The reality show National Heads-Up Poker Championship has been pre-recorded, while a non-disclosure agreement protects the identity of the winner.

Polymarket has presented its view on possible insider information as being positive.

The last Championship aired all the way back in 2013 and has now been brought back.

It has been announced that the show will consist of 10 episodes and that it will air in 2026.

Insider Trading on the Rise

The rise of online gambling has led to an increase in insider trading, as leaking information has become relatively easier.

Polymarket has presented its view on the possible abuse of insider information as being positive.

Insider trading has not been mentioned anywhere in Polymarket’s terms of service.

Polymarket has not been cleared to operate in the USA yet.

Due to various regulatory prerequisites, they have yet to be approved for regulation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Spoilers on the Predicted Winner

The supposed winner of the race had at one point reached an all-time peak of 99%. That percentage has been formed through Polymarket.

The person at the top of that list is Sam Soverel. This atypical amount and confidence in Soverel’s win has been attributed to a possible leak through an inside person.

Only 3 of the other contestants have been noted with an above 1% bet.

Other Spoiled Predictions

Besides the identity of the National Heads-Up Poker Championship winner, Polymarket has had other situations where suspicion of foul play has been noted.

It is believed that someone had learned of Taylor Swift’s engagement to Travis Kelce and had used this to make a winning bet on the situation, as an account had used the opportunity to make a large bet on the answer.

Another similar situation occurred recently when, nearing the day of the Nobel Prize awards, a huge bet had been placed on the yet-to-be-revealed winner, which led some to suspect either tampering or insider trading.