Kalshi’s Ambiguity About Cardi B’s Super Bowl Performance Leads to CFTC Letter

Fans and bettors have spent many millions around Super Bowl Sunday on Kalshi’s prediction markets. A lot of that money came from non-game trading, with more than $100 million exchanged just on the market for the halftime show’s opening song. However, traders who wagered $4.4 million on whether Cardi B would “perform” during the show were dissatisfied and filed a formal complaint with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates Kalshi, alleging that the market had been settled unfairly.

Bettors Argue Cardi B Sang, Kalshi Disagrees

The issue is that Kalshi’s definition of what a performance is and that of the bettors seems way off. Cardi B appeared during Bad Bunny’s halftime show. She danced, lip-synced, and played to the camera in what most people would consider a performance, even if she was never the main act. However, according to Kalshi, “dancing or appearing on stage without singing/playing instruments” does not constitute a performance.

Kalshi’s full rules state that an appearance counts as a performance if the following three conditions are met:

• The performer appears onstage;
• They actually perform, including dancing, singing, DJ-ing, etc.;
• They are a scheduled performer or make a guest appearance.

Under those criteria, Cardi B’s appearance would appear to qualify as a performance. She was on stage, dancing, and took part as a guest. However, the rules also specify what does not constitute an appearance, including: “Dancing or appearing on stage without singing/playing instruments.”

However, according to Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana, who spoke with Business Insider, the situation was unclear. She said Cardi B “was at the very least mouthing the words while dancing,” but noted it was uncertain whether she was actually singing. Diana also added that it was impossible to determine either way. As a result, rather than issuing a definitive yes-or-no ruling, Kalshi froze the market and settled it at a weighted price.

Kalshi Saw Huge Volumes Traded During the Super Bowl

Despite this controversy, Kalshi still made tons of cash during the Super Bowl. In fact, the prediction markets provider announced it took more than $1.2 billion in trades during the event. This marked a whopping 27 times increase in trades compared to last year. Considering $100 million of this came from trades regarding the halftime show’s opening song, it’s no surprise that the issue of whether Cardi B sang or not was such an important point of discussion.

Interestingly, this huge uptick in volumes traded and the popularity of the platform came just as some states are discussing banning Kalshi altogether. In fact, recently, Massachusetts gave Kalshi a month to restrict its offerings in the state and comply with its gambling laws. Since that month hasn’t elapsed, however, Kalshi still saw decent activity in Massachusetts during the Super Bowl.